CAJ | 학술논문

基于地震统计数据，前人就统计回归分析影响因子和变形值的关系提出若干评估液化侧向变形的方法，能计算得到给定土体条件和地震作用下的侧向变形，但这些方法为确定性描述，无法根据震害历史预测变形，较难为城市抗震合理布局提供切合实际的依据。本文采用地面峰值加速度PGV 和震级M W 联合分布概率的计算方法，以蒙特卡洛方法模拟已有的地震液化侧向变形回归公式中场地参数的随机性，建立对区域性地震液化侧向变形超过指定阈值的年平均率的预测模型框架，并应用于实例，以期对区域性震害进行液化侧向变形评估及其非确定性描述研究提供思路。
기우지진통계수거，전인취통계회귀분석영향인자화변형치적관계제출약간평고액화측향변형적방법，능계산득도급정토체조건화지진작용하적측향변형，단저사방법위학정성묘술，무법근거진해역사예측변형，교난위성시항진합리포국제공절합실제적의거。본문채용지면봉치가속도PGV 화진급M W 연합분포개솔적계산방법，이몽특잡락방법모의이유적지진액화측향변형회귀공식중장지삼수적수궤성，건립대구역성지진액화측향변형초과지정역치적년평균솔적예측모형광가，병응용우실례，이기대구역성진해진행액화측향변형평고급기비학정성묘술연구제공사로。
This paper presents a framework for assessing the probability that a specified liquefac-tion-induced lateral deformation will be exceeded based on seismic damage investigation data. This framework overcomes the defect in traditional empirical formulas and regression models in how the terms of uncertainty are described. It deals not only with the effect of liquefaction but also with the probabilistic characterization of all possible region ground motions at a given site with a known earthquake history (in terms of the joint distribution of PGA and MW). In the case analy-sis, we obtain a liquefaction-induced lateral deformation hazard curve by applying the framework to the calculation in order to demonstrate the annual rate of deformation exceedance at a given site for a given exposure time. Thus, this framework has the potential to be a very useful tool in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering. It can also facilitate further research efforts to de-scribe the uncertainties associated with liquefaction-induced lateral deformation. While the pro-posed framework is simple and effective, more work is necessary, especially on other factors that may be influencing the deformation, before it may be considered to be complete.