CAJ | 학술논문

基于沙漠绿洲戈壁区域同化预报系统（Desert Oasis Gobi Regional Assimilation Forecast System，简称DOGRAFSv1.0）不同边界层方案（YSU，ACM2）对2013年1月和7月的预报结果和实况资料，利用客观检验方法，初步探究不同边界层方案对地面气象要素预报的影响，结果表明：ACM2方案对地面气象要素预报效果总体优于YSU方案，尤其对1月份ACM2方案预报结果优势显著；对于2 m温度，ACM2方案对低温预报偏高的问题有一定改善，但对高温预报偏低的问题有所加重；对于10 m风速，ACM2方案的预报误差明显低于YSU方案；对于降水，ACM2方案在一定程度上改善了1月漏报和空报的问题，但对7月改进不明显，这主要由于ACM2方案在稳定或中性层结下采用的局地闭合算法削弱了边界层顶卷挟和边界层内混合作用，进而抑制了边界层物理过程与对流过程的耦合作用。
기우사막록주과벽구역동화예보계통（Desert Oasis Gobi Regional Assimilation Forecast System，간칭DOGRAFSv1.0）불동변계층방안（YSU，ACM2）대2013년1월화7월적예보결과화실황자료，이용객관검험방법，초보탐구불동변계층방안대지면기상요소예보적영향，결과표명：ACM2방안대지면기상요소예보효과총체우우YSU방안，우기대1월빈ACM2방안예보결과우세현저；대우2 m온도，ACM2방안대저온예보편고적문제유일정개선，단대고온예보편저적문제유소가중；대우10 m풍속，ACM2방안적예보오차명현저우YSU방안；대우강수，ACM2방안재일정정도상개선료1월루보화공보적문제，단대7월개진불명현，저주요유우ACM2방안재은정혹중성층결하채용적국지폐합산법삭약료변계층정권협화변계층내혼합작용，진이억제료변계층물리과정여대류과정적우합작용。
Based on the forecasts of Desert Oasis Gobi Regional Analysis and Forecast System (DOGRAFSv1.0) by two PBL schemes (namely YSU and ACM2) and observation data during January and July in 2013, using the objective verification method, the effect of different boundary layer schemes on the forecasting surface meteorological factors is analyzed preliminarily. The results indicate that the performance of the ACM2 scheme takes more advantages than the YSU scheme on the whole, especially in January. For 2 m temperature, the ACM2 scheme has reduced the bias of forecasting low temperature while magnifying the bias of forecasting high temperature. With regard to 10 m wind speed, the forecasting bias of the ACM2 scheme is considerably below the YSU scheme. And for the forecasting precipitation, the ACM2 scheme has reduced the missing rate to some extent in January. That might be given rise to the local term under the stable or neural conditions, which contributes to weakening the entrainment of the top of PBL and eddy diffusion of the inner PBL so that the coupled PBL physics and convective process is restrained to a certain degree.