CAJ | 학술논문

旅游景区客流量受多种因素的影响，利用传统信息收集的手段，从众多影响因素中捕捉客流量预警前兆指标十分困难。借助搜索指数，挖掘景区客流量预警的先兆指标，构建基于网络关注度的旅游景区客流量预警研究框架，并以奥运场馆国家游泳中心水立方为例，运用格兰杰因果关系理论及 VAR 模型，检验网络关注度与水立方客流量的相关性，对水立方客流量进行预测预警。研究结果表明：网络关注度与客流量之间存在双向的 Granger 因果关系，可以将水立方网络关注度作为客流量预警的先兆指标；预测期间内客流量的警度值在-0.49~-0.27之间，水立方客流量预警等级为客流量低值蓝色预警。
여유경구객류량수다충인소적영향，이용전통신식수집적수단，종음다영향인소중포착객류량예경전조지표십분곤난。차조수색지수，알굴경구객류량예경적선조지표，구건기우망락관주도적여유경구객류량예경연구광가，병이오운장관국가유영중심수립방위례，운용격란걸인과관계이론급 VAR 모형，검험망락관주도여수립방객류량적상관성，대수립방객류량진행예측예경。연구결과표명：망락관주도여객류량지간존재쌍향적 Granger 인과관계，가이장수립방망락관주도작위객류량예경적선조지표；예측기간내객류량적경도치재-0.49~-0.27지간，수립방객류량예경등급위객류량저치람색예경。
This paper attempts to regard degree of consumer attention as an aura indicator of tourist flow volume in early warning system,and establish a research framework of tourist flow volume forewarning.To take the case of Water Cube as instance,we use the dates of daily tourist flow volume and Baidu index from Aug.1,2010 to Dec.31,201 1,and establish VAR model using non-structural method and Granger causality analysis method,and analyze the relationship between degree of consumer attention and tourist flow volume.The results show that:there is a two-way Granger causality between degree of consumer attention and tourist flow volume.The network attention of Water Cube may be as a harbinger of early warning indicators;The forecasting val-ues of tourism flow volume are between -0.49 and -0.27,indicating that the rate of tourism flow volume of Water Cube is warning blue level which is below the guaranteed tourism flow volume.