CAJ | 학술논문

以火电600 MW无脱硝机组为例，对“十五”与“十一五”期间火电机组的造价变化进行了研究，并由此提出造价预测方法，对“十二五”期间火电工程造价进行了预测。影响火电工程造价的因素按照与市场的相关程度划分为三类，通过分析发现，新增火电装机容量与电力市场强相关因素存在密切关联，且直接影响工程造价的变化。从预测结果来看，“十二五”期间火电造价水平将经历先下跌再回升的过程，其中2012年的造价水平是最低的，整体波动幅度在3％以内。
이화전600 MW무탈초궤조위례，대“십오”여“십일오”기간화전궤조적조개변화진행료연구，병유차제출조개예측방법，대“십이오”기간화전공정조개진행료예측。영향화전공정조개적인소안조여시장적상관정도화분위삼류，통과분석발현，신증화전장궤용량여전력시장강상관인소존재밀절관련，차직접영향공정조개적변화。종예측결과래간，“십이오”기간화전조개수평장경력선하질재회승적과정，기중2012년적조개수평시최저적，정체파동폭도재3％이내。
In this article,the “600 MW non-denitration power plant”was adopted for instance,through the analysis of the variation of its cost during the 11th and 12th Five Year Plan,the main facts were extracted to develop the prediction of cost during the 12th Five Year Plan.The constitution of cost was divided into three categories of factors depending on the correlation degree with power market,and it was found that the added installed thermal power generating capacity had close relationship with the factor which was called “power industry strongly related factor”,and it directly affected the change of cost.According to the predicted results,the cost level would fall first and then rise through the process,which in 2012 reached the lowest point,the overall volatility rated within 3%.