CAJ | 학술논문

土地利用变化是国际地圈生物圈计划（ IGBP）的核心研究计划之一，经典的数理统计方法未考虑空间因素的影响，因此土地利用空间演变分析的结果易产生偏差。基于广州市土地利用变更调查数据，采用GIS空间分析和空间自相关方法，在对2005-2009年广州市土地利用变化格局进行初步分析的基础上，选取交通运输用地和城镇村及工矿建设用地，对这两类用地变化强度空间格局及其集聚情况进行了探索，结果表明：（1）广州市土地利用变化向南发展速度最快，各个地类中道路与建设用地的扩张方向一致，大量建设用地转为交通用地和林地；（2）空间位置影响下，各年份网格单元存在明显的空间正相关。邻近空间单元之间互相依赖发展变化，且趋于高动态度集聚（ H-H）；（3）广州市土地在各区交界处废弃、破碎、分散的建设用地复垦为农用地，在这些地区会有高动态度集聚（ H-H），由此认为土地利用动态度集聚对行政因素的响应较敏感。
토지이용변화시국제지권생물권계화（ IGBP）적핵심연구계화지일，경전적수리통계방법미고필공간인소적영향，인차토지이용공간연변분석적결과역산생편차。기우엄주시토지이용변경조사수거，채용GIS공간분석화공간자상관방법，재대2005-2009년엄주시토지이용변화격국진행초보분석적기출상，선취교통운수용지화성진촌급공광건설용지，대저량류용지변화강도공간격국급기집취정황진행료탐색，결과표명：（1）엄주시토지이용변화향남발전속도최쾌，각개지류중도로여건설용지적확장방향일치，대량건설용지전위교통용지화임지；（2）공간위치영향하，각년빈망격단원존재명현적공간정상관。린근공간단원지간호상의뢰발전변화，차추우고동태도집취（ H-H）；（3）엄주시토지재각구교계처폐기、파쇄、분산적건설용지복은위농용지，재저사지구회유고동태도집취（ H-H），유차인위토지이용동태도집취대행정인소적향응교민감。
Research on land use change is one of the core plans of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ( IGBP) .Since the classical mathematical statistics to land use studies ignores the impact of spatial factors , the a-nalysis results of land use spatial evolution prone to bias .The results indicate that: ( 1 ) The more closer to the south , the more faster of Guangzhou's land use change develops;the expansion direction of all types of road is con-sistent with that of construction land , and a large number of the construction lands has turned into the forest lands and the transport lands;(2) Under the influence of the spatial position , each year there is an obvious space positive correlation between grid cells .The adjacent units are developed and changed in mutual dependence , and they tend to be highly dynamic agglomeration(HH);(3) In Guangzhou, the abandoned, broken, and scattered construction lands at the junction of districts are changed into agricultural land through land reclamation , and there is a highly dynamic agglomeration(HH) in these regions.Thus it may conclude that the degree of land use dynamics agglom-eration responses sensitively to the administrative factors .