CAJ | 학술논문

根据湛江市1961-2008年的日降水量、气温、相对湿度、蒸发量等气象资料，通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析、小波分析以及相关性检验等方法，分析了近50年来雷州半岛北部地区水热变化特征、趋势性和周期性等，并探讨了其与ENSO活动的可能关系。结果表明，（1）1961-2008年雷州半岛北部地区气候趋向暖干，总体呈偏干气候态。自20世纪90年代中后期以来，气候干旱化趋势愈加显著，尤其在2002年左右出现突变性转折。（2）近50年来该地区气候水热组合季节特征主要表现为暖湿-凉干组合，然而在年际与年代际时间尺度上，水热状况则表现出暖湿-凉干、暖干-凉湿等多种不同组合特征，且在年际与年代际时间尺度上的水热组合状况也并不完全一致。（3）采用连续小波周期分析发现该地区的气候干湿变化存在显著的2～3年短周期变化，可能与同一时期ENSO活动具有一定关系。
근거담강시1961-2008년적일강수량、기온、상대습도、증발량등기상자료，통과Mann-Kendall추세분석、소파분석이급상관성검험등방법，분석료근50년래뇌주반도북부지구수열변화특정、추세성화주기성등，병탐토료기여ENSO활동적가능관계。결과표명，（1）1961-2008년뇌주반도북부지구기후추향난간，총체정편간기후태。자20세기90년대중후기이래，기후간한화추세유가현저，우기재2002년좌우출현돌변성전절。（2）근50년래해지구기후수열조합계절특정주요표현위난습-량간조합，연이재년제여년대제시간척도상，수열상황칙표현출난습-량간、난간-량습등다충불동조합특정，차재년제여년대제시간척도상적수열조합상황야병불완전일치。（3）채용련속소파주기분석발현해지구적기후간습변화존재현저적2～3년단주기변화，가능여동일시기ENSO활동구유일정관계。
On the basis of daily temperature , precipitation , relative humidity , evaporation and other meteorological index , we apply the methods of Mann-Kendall trend analysis , Wavelet analysis and Correlation test aiming to ana-lyze the hydrological variation , trend, and periodicity of Zhanjiang in northern Leizhou Peninsula during the last 50a, as well as exploring the possible relationship with ENSO events .The results demonstrated that:(1) A war-ming and drying climate mode was found in northern Leizhou Peninsula during 1961-2008 AD.Especially from the 1990s in the last century , the climate became more and more dry in this region , and an obvious abrupt climate change occurred at about 2002 AD.(2) Seasonal hydrological assemblages in the study region exhibited mainly as warmer/wetter and cooler/drier combinations over the last 50 years.However, it also showed some different combi-nations at different timescales , including seasonal , annual and decadal timescales .(3) Wavelet analysis indicated that the humidity index has an obvious period of about 2~3 a, which might be correlated with the ENSO events during the same period .