科学决策
科學決策
과학결책
DECISION MAKING MAGAZINE
2014年
10期
85-94
,共10页
货币供应量%协整分析%脉冲分析
貨幣供應量%協整分析%脈遲分析
화폐공응량%협정분석%맥충분석
money supply%co-integration analysis%pulse analysis
论文使用2006-2012年月度数据，基于VAR模型对影响我国货币政策的因素进行了协整分析，结果表明：财政赤字、外汇储备、资产价格与M2在长期存在均衡关系，且资产价格变动对于货币供应量的影响为最大；短期内，财政赤字、外汇储备、资产价格受到一个正的冲击，引起M2变动的最大值分别为0．1702%、0．1335%、0．2478%，财政赤字、外汇储备具有正效应，资产价格具有负效应，这三者因素对于我国的货币政策的影响不容忽视，应受到政策制定者的关注。
論文使用2006-2012年月度數據，基于VAR模型對影響我國貨幣政策的因素進行瞭協整分析，結果錶明：財政赤字、外彙儲備、資產價格與M2在長期存在均衡關繫，且資產價格變動對于貨幣供應量的影響為最大；短期內，財政赤字、外彙儲備、資產價格受到一箇正的遲擊，引起M2變動的最大值分彆為0．1702%、0．1335%、0．2478%，財政赤字、外彙儲備具有正效應，資產價格具有負效應，這三者因素對于我國的貨幣政策的影響不容忽視，應受到政策製定者的關註。
논문사용2006-2012년월도수거，기우VAR모형대영향아국화폐정책적인소진행료협정분석，결과표명：재정적자、외회저비、자산개격여M2재장기존재균형관계，차자산개격변동대우화폐공응량적영향위최대；단기내，재정적자、외회저비、자산개격수도일개정적충격，인기M2변동적최대치분별위0．1702%、0．1335%、0．2478%，재정적자、외회저비구유정효응，자산개격구유부효응，저삼자인소대우아국적화폐정책적영향불용홀시，응수도정책제정자적관주。
Using the monthly data from 2006 to 2012 , this article does co-integration analysis on factors affecting China’s monetary policy based on the VAR model, the results show that:the budget deficit,foreign exchange reserves,asset prices and M2 in the long-term equilibrium rela-tionship exists,and the impact of asset price movements is maximum impact in the money sup-ply;The short term, the fiscal deficit, foreign exchange reserves, asset prices are subject to a positive impact,causing M2 maximum changes were 0. 1702%,0. 1335%,0. 2478%,and budget deficit,foreign exchange reserves has a positive effect,asset prices has a negative effect. These three factors for the impact of China’s monetary policy can not be ignored and should be the con-cern of policy makers.
