CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，作为老工业基地的东北地区由于高耗能的重工业比重较大，经济发展过度依赖第二产业，在经济高速发展的同时，碳排放量也在逐年增加，成为全国碳排放的重灾区。产业结构不合理问题已经成为制约该区域低碳经济发展的主要瓶颈。采用协整分析，基于东北地区1995-2012年碳排放强度和产业结构的时间序列数据，对东北地区碳排放与产业结构的关系进行实证研究，得出东北地区碳排放与产业结构存在长期均衡关系，且第二产业发展是碳排放量增加的主要原因。东北地区应降低第二产业比重，大力发展第三产业和绿色农业；开发利用低碳技术，实现设备低碳升级；提高新型能源替代率，改变化石能源为主的能源消耗格局。
근년래，작위로공업기지적동북지구유우고모능적중공업비중교대，경제발전과도의뢰제이산업，재경제고속발전적동시，탄배방량야재축년증가，성위전국탄배방적중재구。산업결구불합리문제이경성위제약해구역저탄경제발전적주요병경。채용협정분석，기우동북지구1995-2012년탄배방강도화산업결구적시간서렬수거，대동북지구탄배방여산업결구적관계진행실증연구，득출동북지구탄배방여산업결구존재장기균형관계，차제이산업발전시탄배방량증가적주요원인。동북지구응강저제이산업비중，대력발전제삼산업화록색농업；개발이용저탄기술，실현설비저탄승급；제고신형능원체대솔，개변화석능원위주적능원소모격국。
In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, as old industrial base, the northeast area has become the country's major carbon emissions region because the high energy consumption of heavy industry accounts for a larger proportion and the economic development relies on the second industry, as a result, the carbon emissions are also increasing year by year, and the industrial structure problems seriously restricted the economic development of the northeast area. This paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial structure in the northeast area based on the co-integration analysis and the series data of carbon emissions intensity and the industrial structure from 1995 to 2012. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and industrial structure in the northeast area and the development of the second industry is the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions. Finally, on the basis of the empirical analysis, it puts forward measures and suggestions mainly including reducing the proportion of second industry, developing the third industry and green agriculture, developing and making use of the low carbon technology, upgrading low carbon equipment, improving the new energy substitution rate, and changing the fuel consumption pattern based fossil energy.