CAJ | 학술논문

根据连续型寿命分布理论，充分利用历史数据，给出了Weibull分布条件下串联水工建筑系统的可靠度计算模型。结合南水北调中线总干渠河北段进行了实际应用，建立了南水北调中线河北段输水串联系统建筑物在不同使用期的防洪风险估算模型。结果表明：水工建筑的防洪风险不仅与传统的设计标准有关，还与使用时间有着密切的关系，建立了动态水工建筑物防洪风险评价模型。
근거련속형수명분포이론，충분이용역사수거，급출료Weibull분포조건하천련수공건축계통적가고도계산모형。결합남수북조중선총간거하북단진행료실제응용，건립료남수북조중선하북단수수천련계통건축물재불동사용기적방홍풍험고산모형。결과표명：수공건축적방홍풍험불부여전통적설계표준유관，환여사용시간유착밀절적관계，건립료동태수공건축물방홍풍험평개모형。
According to the theory of continuous life, the paper gave distribution flood risk assessment model of series linked hydraulic structures system in different serving periods on the condition of weibull distribution by the full use of history flood information.The model was appied in Hebei section of middle route main canal in south to north water transfer project.The paper set up the estimation model of flood risk of series linked water construction of the section in different serving periods.The results showed that flood risk of series linked water construction is closely related to not only the traditional design standard but also serving period.The paper established the evaluation model of flood risk of dynamic hydraulic structures.