CAJ | 학술논문

以博尔塔拉河上游和中游为研究区，利用温泉站、博乐站1992-2012年月径流、降水、温度数据，采用统计分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、水文特征分析参数分析了博河流域气候变化对径流的影响，得出以下结论：①20世纪90年代以来，博尔塔拉河上游和中游径流量均呈波动上升趋势，其中近10年径流量增加趋势明显。②径流年际变化上游较稳定，而径流年内变化正好相反，且上游径流变化具有水热同期的特点，而中游具有滞后性。③温度是引起上游径流变化的主要因素，而农业灌溉、温度、降水的变化对中游径流变化有重要影响，其中温度的影响最为显著。
이박이탑랍하상유화중유위연구구，이용온천참、박악참1992-2012년월경류、강수、온도수거，채용통계분석、Mann-Kendall비삼수검험、수문특정분석삼수분석료박하류역기후변화대경류적영향，득출이하결론：①20세기90년대이래，박이탑랍하상유화중유경류량균정파동상승추세，기중근10년경류량증가추세명현。②경류년제변화상유교은정，이경류년내변화정호상반，차상유경류변화구유수열동기적특점，이중유구유체후성。③온도시인기상유경류변화적주요인소，이농업관개、온도、강수적변화대중유경류변화유중요영향，기중온도적영향최위현저。
Taking the midstream and upstream of Bortala river as the study area , the paper used the methods which are statistical analysis,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and analysis parameters of hydro-logical characteristics and the data that are monthly runoff,precipitation and temperature on Wenquan and Bole station in 1992~2012 to analyze the impact of climate change on runoff.The results showed that runoff in midstream and upstream of the Bortala river appeared a trend of increase since 1990s.Runoff in-creased obviously in nearly 10 years.The interannual variability of runoff at upstream was stable.The an-nual variability of runoff was opposite, and runoff change at upstream had characteristic of hydrothermal same period.however,that of the midstream had a lag.The temperature is the main factor which causes runoff change at the upstream.The agricultural irrigation,temperature and precipitation are the main rea-sons of runoff change at the midstream.The influence of temperature on runoff is the most significant.