CAJ | 학술논문

科学预测客流的变化趋势与波动及获取路网客流OD表是制定旅客列车开行方案的依据。结合高速铁路客运的运营实际，利用客流变化相对稳定特征，本文提出了客流OD表的反推方法和计算流程，该方法的计算工作量相对叠加法节省了（n2-2n）。考虑实际客流日波动特征，依据模糊预测原理，建立了车站客运指标的时间序列模糊预测方程和预测方法，该方法可获取预测期客运指标的变化区间。以南方一高速铁路线为背景，对车站发送人数进行了预测，预测值与实际数据相比误差在1%以内。在车站发送人数预测的基础上，给出了线路客流OD表的反推演算。
과학예측객류적변화추세여파동급획취로망객류OD표시제정여객열차개행방안적의거。결합고속철로객운적운영실제，이용객류변화상대은정특정，본문제출료객류OD표적반추방법화계산류정，해방법적계산공작량상대첩가법절성료（n2-2n）。고필실제객류일파동특정，의거모호예측원리，건립료차참객운지표적시간서렬모호예측방정화예측방법，해방법가획취예측기객운지표적변화구간。이남방일고속철로선위배경，대차참발송인수진행료예측，예측치여실제수거상비오차재1%이내。재차참발송인수예측적기출상，급출료선로객류OD표적반추연산。
Forecasting the variation tendency and fluctuation of passenger flows and obtaining OD matrix of passengers in high speed railways are the base of scheming the passenger trains. In view of relative steady variation of passenger flows, the estimation method and process of passenger OD matrix are present combining with China railway transport in this paper. The method is able to reduce the calculated amount of (n2-2n)while ensure the results exactitude. In consideration of day-fluctuation of passengers, the time series forecasting model and method of passengers is put forward based on fuzzy math, and the range of variation of passengers are estimated. Background on a South high speed railway line, sending passengers of stations are estimated in the predictive period and the predictive errors compared to actual data are less than 1%. Based on estimating sending passengers of stations, passenger OD matrix of the line is reckoned.