CAJ | 학술논문

针对青岛市海洋环境污染控制急需转变产业结构的重大需求,从海洋环境容量优化配置的角度出发,通过建立多目标非线性规划模型,估算2015年青岛市居民生活、农业、工业、服务业四大污染源的化学需氧量(COD)的最大允许排放量,进而得到优化的产业结构.结果表明,相比2007年,2015年青岛全市及胶州湾、莱州湾和黄海3个污染源区的COD最大允许排放量和增加值分别增大1.4~2.3倍和2.3~16.2倍.2015年,青岛全市居民生活、农业、工业、服务业的COD最大允许排放量分别为11.6×104,20.4×104,18.4×104,17.1×104t,而且四大污染源COD最大允许排放量所占比例呈现居民生活源和农业源下降,工业源和服务业源上升的变化趋势.在优化的最大允许排放量比例下,第一、二、三产业的增加值比例由“二三一”型转变为“三二一”型；同时,重污染的居民生活源和农业源的COD排放强度减小,全市及三个污染源区的环境基尼系数都降至“0.4”警戒线以下.说明经过模型优化,可在满足环境约束的同时,获得经济的增长,并且产业结构和排污结构均趋于合理化,结果可为青岛市产业结构调整提供借鉴.
침대청도시해양배경오염공제급수전변산업결구적중대수구,종해양배경용량우화배치적각도출발,통과건립다목표비선성규화모형,고산2015년청도시거민생활、농업、공업、복무업사대오염원적화학수양량(COD)적최대윤허배방량,진이득도우화적산업결구.결과표명,상비2007년,2015년청도전시급효주만、래주만화황해3개오염원구적COD최대윤허배방량화증가치분별증대1.4~2.3배화2.3~16.2배.2015년,청도전시거민생활、농업、공업、복무업적COD최대윤허배방량분별위11.6×104,20.4×104,18.4×104,17.1×104t,이차사대오염원COD최대윤허배방량소점비례정현거민생활원화농업원하강,공업원화복무업원상승적변화추세.재우화적최대윤허배방량비례하,제일、이、삼산업적증가치비례유“이삼일”형전변위“삼이일”형；동시,중오염적거민생활원화농업원적COD배방강도감소,전시급삼개오염원구적배경기니계수도강지“0.4”경계선이하.설명경과모형우화,가재만족배경약속적동시,획득경제적증장,병차산업결구화배오결구균추우합이화,결과가위청도시산업결구조정제공차감.
Qingdao is in need of industrial structure adjustment to control ocean pollution. Thus, the industrial structure of this city was optimized by calculating the maximum permitted chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharging amounts from households, agriculture, industries, and services in 2015 with the use of a multi-purpose nonlinear programming model. Results indicate that the maximum permitted COD discharging amount and gross domestic product (GDP) of the whole city and three pollutant-discharging districts (i.e., Jiaozhou Bay, Laizhou Bay, and Huanghai Sea) in 2015 increased by 1.4times to 2.3times and by 2.3times to 16.2times, respectively. The maximum permitted COD discharging amount of households, agriculture, industries, and services in Qingdao and the three pollutant-discharging districts were 11.6 × 104, 20.4 × 104, 18.4 × 104, and 17.1 × 104 tons, respectively. The percentage of maximum permitted COD discharging amount of the four industries showed that the household and agriculture percentages decreased, whereas those of industry and service increased. Under the optimized proportion of maximum permitted discharging amount of pollutants, the service GDP of Qingdao, rather than the industry GDP, comprised the largest proportion of total GDP. The COD pollution intensity of households and agriculture decreased. The Gini coefficients of the whole city and the three pollutant-discharging districts were below the warning value of 0.4. The above results suggested that the coordination of economic development and environmental regulation could be achieved by using the proposed model, which provided a basis for the industrial structure adjustment in Qingdao.