CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于从物流业发展来解释我国制造业生产效率提高这一角度存在的一些缺陷，文章在综述相关研究的基础上提出了二者之间存在非线性关系的观点。利用门槛回归模型，分别以贸易开放度和国际投资开放度作为对外开放门槛变量，证实了其在物流业提升制造业生产效率这一运行机制上存在着非线性的调节作用。研究结果表明：2003-2011年间，贸易开放度作为门槛，二者作用机制表现出了“倒U”型的相关关系；国际投资开放度作为门槛，二者作用机制表现出了显著的“逐步减弱”型相关关系，与理论和经验判断相一致。由于对外开放门槛效应的存在，系统、动态地看待我国对外开放和促进物流业发展的各项政策成为文章研究的重要启示。
감우종물류업발전래해석아국제조업생산효솔제고저일각도존재적일사결함，문장재종술상관연구적기출상제출료이자지간존재비선성관계적관점。이용문함회귀모형，분별이무역개방도화국제투자개방도작위대외개방문함변량，증실료기재물류업제승제조업생산효솔저일운행궤제상존재착비선성적조절작용。연구결과표명：2003-2011년간，무역개방도작위문함，이자작용궤제표현출료“도U”형적상관관계；국제투자개방도작위문함，이자작용궤제표현출료현저적“축보감약”형상관관계，여이론화경험판단상일치。유우대외개방문함효응적존재，계통、동태지간대아국대외개방화촉진물류업발전적각항정책성위문장연구적중요계시。
In view of the defects in the explaining of growth of manufacturing's profitability in China from the angles of development of logistics, this paper puts forward a proposition that development of logistics industry have non-linear relations with manufacturing's profitability, and confirms the non-linear relations by panel threshold mode with the trade openness and international investment openness as the threshold variable. The conclusion shows that during the period of 2003-2011, with the trade openness as the threshold, the mechanism of two variables showed"Inverted U", with the international investment openness as the threshold, the two variables shows a significant "Weaken Gradually" type of relationship. The result is consistent with the theoretical and empirical judgment. Therefore , it provides the important enlightenment that because of the openness threshold effect, we should regard the openness and various policies of promoting logistics industry systematically and dynamically.