CAJ | 학술논문

针对元胞负荷中异常数据会给空间负荷预测带来不利影响的问题，提出一种用于确定元胞负荷最大值的概率谱方法。该方法从城市电网规划需求的角度入手，结合城市电网的实际运行方式，对元胞负荷中出现的异常数据进行了分类，阐明了各类异常数据对空间负荷预测产生影响的作用方式，揭示了元胞之间负荷转移、元胞负荷非平稳增长、元胞负荷数据奇异与规划所需数据之间的内在联系，通过计算元胞负荷的概率谱曲线来描述和刻画不同类型异常数据的各自特点，在采用高斯拟合技术处理过的元胞负荷概率谱曲线上对元胞负荷最大值进行限定和约束。实例分析表明，使用概率谱方法确定的元胞负荷最大值进行空间负荷预测，提高了预测精度。
침대원포부하중이상수거회급공간부하예측대래불리영향적문제，제출일충용우학정원포부하최대치적개솔보방법。해방법종성시전망규화수구적각도입수，결합성시전망적실제운행방식，대원포부하중출현적이상수거진행료분류，천명료각류이상수거대공간부하예측산생영향적작용방식，게시료원포지간부하전이、원포부하비평은증장、원포부하수거기이여규화소수수거지간적내재련계，통과계산원포부하적개솔보곡선래묘술화각화불동류형이상수거적각자특점，재채용고사의합기술처리과적원포부하개솔보곡선상대원포부하최대치진행한정화약속。실례분석표명，사용개솔보방법학정적원포부하최대치진행공간부하예측，제고료예측정도。
In view of the problem that abnormal cellular load will bring about adverse effects to the spatial load forecasting,a probability spectrum method for ascertaining the maximal value of cellular load is proposed.By proceeding from the planning demand and combining with the actual operation mode of the urban power network,the method classifies the abnormal data in cellular load and clarifies their different modes of impact on spatial load forecasting.It also reveals the internal connection between the data needed and load transfer,non-stationary growth and abnormal conditions of cellular load.By computing the probability spectrum of cellular load,the characteristics of different kinds of abnormal data are described and depicted.Then the maximal value of cellular load is limited and restrained on the cellular probability spectrum curve treated by Gauss fitting technique.Finally,a case study shows that the prediction accuracy is appreciably improved by the maximal load using the method.