植物保护
植物保護
식물보호
PLANT PROTECTION
2014年
5期
164-167
,共4页
小麦条锈病%越冬菌源%区域勘定%影响因子
小麥條鏽病%越鼕菌源%區域勘定%影響因子
소맥조수병%월동균원%구역감정%영향인자
wheat stripe rust%overwintering pathogen source%survey of distribution area%influencing factor
通过多年调查研究，明确了甘肃省平凉市小麦条锈病菌越冬区域为海拔1980 m 以下的小麦种植区，主要越冬区域在海拔1750 m 以下；在对该市27年小麦条锈病历史资料系统分析的基础上，研究筛选出了当年秋苗发病程度、冬季11月-翌年2月降水总量、翌年1月份平均气温、翌年1月31日前积雪日数等小麦条锈病越冬菌量的主要影响因子，采用多元逐步回归方法组建了当地小麦条锈病越冬菌量预测模型，回测准确率为72％，对开展其综合治理有积极的指导作用。
通過多年調查研究，明確瞭甘肅省平涼市小麥條鏽病菌越鼕區域為海拔1980 m 以下的小麥種植區，主要越鼕區域在海拔1750 m 以下；在對該市27年小麥條鏽病歷史資料繫統分析的基礎上，研究篩選齣瞭噹年鞦苗髮病程度、鼕季11月-翌年2月降水總量、翌年1月份平均氣溫、翌年1月31日前積雪日數等小麥條鏽病越鼕菌量的主要影響因子，採用多元逐步迴歸方法組建瞭噹地小麥條鏽病越鼕菌量預測模型，迴測準確率為72％，對開展其綜閤治理有積極的指導作用。
통과다년조사연구，명학료감숙성평량시소맥조수병균월동구역위해발1980 m 이하적소맥충식구，주요월동구역재해발1750 m 이하；재대해시27년소맥조수병역사자료계통분석적기출상，연구사선출료당년추묘발병정도、동계11월-익년2월강수총량、익년1월빈평균기온、익년1월31일전적설일수등소맥조수병월동균량적주요영향인자，채용다원축보회귀방법조건료당지소맥조수병월동균량예측모형，회측준학솔위72％，대개전기종합치리유적겁적지도작용。
Through years of investigation,we confirmed that overwintering area of wheat stripe rust in Pingliang City was located in the wheat planting regions under altitude of 1 980 m and its main overwintering area distributed at altitude below 1 750 m.Based on comprehensive analysis of historical data for wheat stripe rust during 27 years,the main factors affecting the amount of overwintering pathogen were selected,including the occurrence degree on autumn seedlings of the year,total precipitation from November to February in winter,average temperature in January next year and days of snow covering before January 31 next year.Using multiple stepwise regression method,a prediction model for the local overwintering pathogens were set up,with back measurement accuracy of 72%.
