CAJ | 학술논문

在金融全球化的背景下，脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场，导致国际资本流动发生剧烈波动甚至“突然停止”。运用面板Probit模型考察1976-2012年22个新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素，着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响。实证研究结果表明：一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”具有显著的负影响；金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度，进一步提高国际资本流动“突然停止”的发生概率。
재금융전구화적배경하，취약적국내금융체계회파급국제자본시장，도치국제자본류동발생극렬파동심지“돌연정지”。운용면판Probit모형고찰1976-2012년22개신흥시장국가국제자본류동“돌연정지”적영향인소，착중탐토일국금융취약성대국제자본류동“돌연정지”적영향。실증연구결과표명：일국적금융취약성대국제자본류동“돌연정지”구유현저적부영향；금융개방회방대일국적금융취약정도，진일보제고국제자본류동“돌연정지”적발생개솔。
With the development of financial globalization,the international capital market would face shocks stemming from domestic financial fragility,which may lead to the volatility of capital and“sudden stops”. By using a broad sample of emerging markets,this paper assesses the impact of financial fragility on the“Sudden Stops”of international capital flows. We find that the fragility in financial system significantly in-fluences the occurrence of the“Sudden Stops”. The financial opening will enlarge the degree of financial fra-gility if financial system becomes more vulnerable,which would trigger the volatility of economy and raise the probability of“Sudden Stops”.