CAJ | 학술논문

对工业适度重型化背景下的高碳发展惯性特征进行分析和预测，并以广东为重点，利用对数平均权重分解法（ LMDI）研究工业能源消费历史碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明，广东工业重型化和高碳化在未来一段时期仍将处于惯性高位区间，工业碳排放峰值预计出现在2025年左右；由技术进步诱发的能源效率提升是过去十多年来碳排放增长减缓的主要影响因素，而产业结构和能源结构调整尚未发挥足够的降碳效应。结合广东工业适度重型化发展特征，研究认为，能源效率提升仍是现阶段广东工业碳减排的主要途径。随着技术进步效应的边际递减，中远期碳减排的主要动力源于产业结构和能源结构的优化。
대공업괄도중형화배경하적고탄발전관성특정진행분석화예측，병이엄동위중점，이용대수평균권중분해법（ LMDI）연구공업능원소비역사탄배방적구동인소。결과표명，엄동공업중형화화고탄화재미래일단시기잉장처우관성고위구간，공업탄배방봉치예계출현재2025년좌우；유기술진보유발적능원효솔제승시과거십다년래탄배방증장감완적주요영향인소，이산업결구화능원결구조정상미발휘족구적강탄효응。결합엄동공업괄도중형화발전특정，연구인위，능원효솔제승잉시현계단엄동공업탄감배적주요도경。수착기술진보효응적변제체감，중원기탄감배적주요동력원우산업결구화능원결구적우화。
The inertia of high-carbon development is analyzed and predicted under the heavy industrial-ization of Guangdong province in this study,the logarithmic mean weight divisia index method is used to ana-lyze the driving factors of historical carbon emissions from the sector of Guangdong industrial energy consump-tion. The results show that the trends of heavy industrialization and high-carbon development will continue in the high range and the peak of industrial carbon emissions is expected to occur around 2025 . The improvement of energy efficiency which is derived by technical progress,is a major factor to mitigation carbon emissions growth in the past decade. However,structure adjustment for industrial and energy does not yet have sufficient effect in reducing carbon emissions. Given the characteristics of Guangdong heavy industrialization,it is sug-gested that the improvement of energy efficiency is still the main way to mitigate carbon emissions growth for Guangdong industrial carbon emissions in this stage. With the diminishing marginal effects of technological progress,the main driving force in the long-term should convert to industrial structure optimization and ener-gy structure adjustment.