产经评论
產經評論
산경평론
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
2014年
5期
108-114
,共7页
物流业%经济增长%传导效应%状态空间模型
物流業%經濟增長%傳導效應%狀態空間模型
물류업%경제증장%전도효응%상태공간모형
logistics%economic growth%conduction effect%state space model
建立状态空间模型来揭示物流业对经济增长传导效应，通过卡尔曼滤波算法估计时变参数，发现1978年以来我国物流业对经济增长的传导效应明显分为两个阶段，并在此基础上提出了物流产业转型期提高物流业对经济增长传导的正弹性效应、发展物流业的路径选择。
建立狀態空間模型來揭示物流業對經濟增長傳導效應，通過卡爾曼濾波算法估計時變參數，髮現1978年以來我國物流業對經濟增長的傳導效應明顯分為兩箇階段，併在此基礎上提齣瞭物流產業轉型期提高物流業對經濟增長傳導的正彈性效應、髮展物流業的路徑選擇。
건립상태공간모형래게시물류업대경제증장전도효응，통과잡이만려파산법고계시변삼수，발현1978년이래아국물류업대경제증장적전도효응명현분위량개계단，병재차기출상제출료물유산업전형기제고물류업대경제증장전도적정탄성효응、발전물류업적로경선택。
By using Kalman filter algorithm,this paper established the state space model , and esti-mated the time-varying parameter of logistics on economic growth to demonstrate the laws of conduction effect of logistics on economic growth in China. The result indicated that the conduction effect of logistics on econom-ic growth was obviously divided into two phases. And based on this,in the period of logistics transition,we put forward the path selection on enhancing the positive marginal effect of the elasticity effect of logistics on e-conomic growth,and the path selection on developing Logistics.
