CAJ | 학술논문

为了深入研究近60年来多种气候、水文要素对海河流域干旱变化的影响，采用 Mann-Kendall 非参数检验法对流域内气温、降水、径流等要素进行了分析，并采用 Z 指数法对流域的干旱特征进行了研究。结果表明：20世纪50年代以来，海河流域经历了湿润正常干旱的变化过程；21世纪初，流域北部地区出现偏旱现象，多次干旱的面积覆盖率低于40％，少部分干旱覆盖率较高，最高达98％；从时间上看，1980年是发生干旱现象的一个临界点，无论是从发生次数还是覆盖面积上，1980年以后要明显大于1980年以前。从干旱发生频率上分析，海河流域发生轻度和一般干旱的高频地区多分布在滦河流域以及北部山区，中部平原地区干旱爆发频率相对较低，重大干旱事件则在中南部平原地区发生频率更高。综合全部干旱事件，滦河流域为干旱频发区，其次为海河流域东部地区，西部地区则频率相对较低。
위료심입연구근60년래다충기후、수문요소대해하류역간한변화적영향，채용 Mann-Kendall 비삼수검험법대류역내기온、강수、경류등요소진행료분석，병채용 Z 지수법대류역적간한특정진행료연구。결과표명：20세기50년대이래，해하류역경력료습윤정상간한적변화과정；21세기초，류역북부지구출현편한현상，다차간한적면적복개솔저우40％，소부분간한복개솔교고，최고체98％；종시간상간，1980년시발생간한현상적일개림계점，무론시종발생차수환시복개면적상，1980년이후요명현대우1980년이전。종간한발생빈솔상분석，해하류역발생경도화일반간한적고빈지구다분포재란하류역이급북부산구，중부평원지구간한폭발빈솔상대교저，중대간한사건칙재중남부평원지구발생빈솔경고。종합전부간한사건，란하류역위간한빈발구，기차위해하류역동부지구，서부지구칙빈솔상대교저。
In order to further study the influence of various climate changes and hydrological factor on arid changes in Haihe River basin,we analyze temperature,precipitation and runoff of Haihe River basin by Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests.We also analyze the drying characteristics by the method of Z index .The results show that the drought of Haihe River basin has changed from wet to normal to dry since the 1950 s.At the beginning of the 21 st century,the northern basin became a little drought. Mostly,the area coverage is lower than 40%,but there were also some drought that covered more than 98% of the area.From the time,the 1980 was a watershed in droughts occurrence.In terms of both the frequency and on the average coverage,it was more dry after 1980 than before.From the drought occurrence frequency,mild and general drought of Haihe River basin in high frequency distributed in the Luanhe River basin as well as the northern mountains,and in central plains region the drought frequency is relatively low.Major drought event occurred more frequently in central and southern plains region. Overall,the drought occour frequence in Luanhe River basin is the highest ,and the eastern region of Haihe River basin is much lower,and the western region is relatively low frequency.