原子能科学技术
原子能科學技術
원자능과학기술
ATOMIC ENERGY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2014年
10期
1915-1920
,共6页
唐秀欢%包利红%李华%万俊生
唐秀歡%包利紅%李華%萬俊生
당수환%포리홍%리화%만준생
卡尔曼滤波%大气扩散%源项反演
卡爾曼濾波%大氣擴散%源項反縯
잡이만려파%대기확산%원항반연
Kalman filter%atmospheric dispersion%source inversion
为能在核设施发生核事故时快速连续反演核素释放率,本文结合高斯多烟团大气扩散模型,模拟固定区域的连续监测数据,设计并实现了核设施核事故核素释放率的卡尔曼滤波实时跟踪反演。研究结果表明:与高斯多烟团大气扩散模型结合的卡尔曼滤波器,在约10次滤波后,跟踪到虚设的稳定、线性及非线性变化的释放率真值,反演值标准差随真值的增大而增大;在扩展卡尔曼滤波反演释放高度时,由于截断误差过大,滤波结果不收敛。利用环境监测数据,通过与高斯多烟团大气扩散模型结合的卡尔曼滤波器可用于固定高度和位置、短时连续排放的核事故核素释放率参数反演,是核设施核事故应急可选择的源项反演手段。
為能在覈設施髮生覈事故時快速連續反縯覈素釋放率,本文結閤高斯多煙糰大氣擴散模型,模擬固定區域的連續鑑測數據,設計併實現瞭覈設施覈事故覈素釋放率的卡爾曼濾波實時跟蹤反縯。研究結果錶明:與高斯多煙糰大氣擴散模型結閤的卡爾曼濾波器,在約10次濾波後,跟蹤到虛設的穩定、線性及非線性變化的釋放率真值,反縯值標準差隨真值的增大而增大;在擴展卡爾曼濾波反縯釋放高度時,由于截斷誤差過大,濾波結果不收斂。利用環境鑑測數據,通過與高斯多煙糰大氣擴散模型結閤的卡爾曼濾波器可用于固定高度和位置、短時連續排放的覈事故覈素釋放率參數反縯,是覈設施覈事故應急可選擇的源項反縯手段。
위능재핵설시발생핵사고시쾌속련속반연핵소석방솔,본문결합고사다연단대기확산모형,모의고정구역적련속감측수거,설계병실현료핵설시핵사고핵소석방솔적잡이만려파실시근종반연。연구결과표명:여고사다연단대기확산모형결합적잡이만려파기,재약10차려파후,근종도허설적은정、선성급비선성변화적석방솔진치,반연치표준차수진치적증대이증대;재확전잡이만려파반연석방고도시,유우절단오차과대,려파결과불수렴。이용배경감측수거,통과여고사다연단대기확산모형결합적잡이만려파기가용우고정고도화위치、단시련속배방적핵사고핵소석방솔삼수반연,시핵설시핵사고응급가선택적원항반연수단。
The rapidly and continually back-calculating source term is important for nuclear emergency response .The Gaussian multi-puff atmospheric dispersion model was used to produce regional environment monitoring data virtually , and then a Kalman filter was designed to inverse radionuclide release rate of nuclear accidents in nuclear facility and the release rate tracking in real time was achieved .The results show that the Kalman filter combined with Gaussian multi-puff atmospheric dispersion model can successfully track the virtually stable ,linear or nonlinear release rate after being iterated about 10 times .The standard error of inversion results increases with the true value . Meanwhile extended Kalman filter cannot inverse the height parameter of accident release as interceptive error is too large to converge . Kalman filter constructed from environment monitoring data and Gaussian multi-puff atmospheric dispersion model can be applied to source inversion in nuclear accident w hich is characterized by static height and position ,short and continual release in nuclear facility .Hence it turns out to be an alternative source inversion method in nuclear emergency response .