统计与信息论坛
統計與信息論罈
통계여신식론단
STATISTICS & INFORMATION TRIBUNE
2014年
10期
46-51
,共6页
可再生能源%电价补贴%灰色模型%宏观经济影响
可再生能源%電價補貼%灰色模型%宏觀經濟影響
가재생능원%전개보첩%회색모형%굉관경제영향
renewable energy%price subsidies%GM%macro economic impact
从国内外各种可再生能源的补贴政策及实施情况出发，重点分析了中国可再生能源电价补贴方案、补贴额度和补贴方式，构建了基于灰色预测模型的中国可再生能源电价补贴模型，并进行了模拟测算。利用中国能源经济研究中心构建开发的中国能源环境可计算一般均衡模型，测算了可再生能源电价补贴对宏观经济的影响，实证表明中国可再生能源价格补贴对宏观经济产生显著的正影响，且经济可承受范围的电价补贴越多正影响越大。最后就中国可再生能源的定价和发展提出相关的政策建议。
從國內外各種可再生能源的補貼政策及實施情況齣髮，重點分析瞭中國可再生能源電價補貼方案、補貼額度和補貼方式，構建瞭基于灰色預測模型的中國可再生能源電價補貼模型，併進行瞭模擬測算。利用中國能源經濟研究中心構建開髮的中國能源環境可計算一般均衡模型，測算瞭可再生能源電價補貼對宏觀經濟的影響，實證錶明中國可再生能源價格補貼對宏觀經濟產生顯著的正影響，且經濟可承受範圍的電價補貼越多正影響越大。最後就中國可再生能源的定價和髮展提齣相關的政策建議。
종국내외각충가재생능원적보첩정책급실시정황출발，중점분석료중국가재생능원전개보첩방안、보첩액도화보첩방식，구건료기우회색예측모형적중국가재생능원전개보첩모형，병진행료모의측산。이용중국능원경제연구중심구건개발적중국능원배경가계산일반균형모형，측산료가재생능원전개보첩대굉관경제적영향，실증표명중국가재생능원개격보첩대굉관경제산생현저적정영향，차경제가승수범위적전개보첩월다정영향월대。최후취중국가재생능원적정개화발전제출상관적정책건의。
T he paper discusses the domestic and overseas subsidy policies to renew able energy and their application ,especially the subsidy plan ,the subsidy amount and subsidy means for the renewable power tariff in China .Based on the improved grey forecasting model ,the paper further measures the scale of the subsidy for China's renewable power tariff .Besides ,the Computable Equivalent Model for China's energy and environment China Center for Energy Economics Research established is used to estimate the influence on China's macro economy .As the results show ,the impact of the Chinese government subsidy for the renewable energy is passive on China's macro economy .The more the government subsidizes within the affordable range of economy ,the greater the impact is .Lastly ,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the pricing and development of renew able energy in China .
