CAJ | 학술논문

人因失误是道路交通事故发生的主要原因。全决策树方法可以确定不同情境中各影响因子对人因可靠性的影响程度和不同场景中的人因失误概率，其强调情境影响的动态分析模式符合驾驶员可靠性分析的需求。结合某道路运输企业具体情况，采用熵权法确定主要影响因子，基于全决策树法分析主要影响因子对驾驶员人误概率的影响程度，确定该情境下驾驶员的人误概率。计算结果显示，根据各主要影响因子的不同品质描述等级组合，该道路运输企业人因可靠性影响最明显的因子是疲劳，其次为外部环境、监督管理及驾驶员的性格，鉴于此结果提出以“筛选-矫正-监控”为控制手段的“三道防线”全程化人因管理模型。
인인실오시도로교통사고발생적주요원인。전결책수방법가이학정불동정경중각영향인자대인인가고성적영향정도화불동장경중적인인실오개솔，기강조정경영향적동태분석모식부합가사원가고성분석적수구。결합모도로운수기업구체정황，채용적권법학정주요영향인자，기우전결책수법분석주요영향인자대가사원인오개솔적영향정도，학정해정경하가사원적인오개솔。계산결과현시，근거각주요영향인자적불동품질묘술등급조합，해도로운수기업인인가고성영향최명현적인자시피로，기차위외부배경、감독관리급가사원적성격，감우차결과제출이“사선-교정-감공”위공제수단적“삼도방선”전정화인인관리모형。
Human error is the main cause of road traffic accidents. By using HDT method, the relation-ship between significant influence factors and human error probability is analyzed and human error proba-bility in different scenarios is estimated. This dynamic reliability analysis model which emphasizes on sit-uational analysis meets the needs of driver reliability. Significant influence factors are identified for driv-ers by using entropy weight analysis, and the relationship between significant influence factors and human error probability is analyzed by using HDT method.Results show that"fatigue"is the most significant in-fluence factor in this enterprise based on the integration of different influence factor quality in different scenarios, and external environment, supervision and drivers′character are also important factors.Based on the results, the "Three Lines of Defense" model of the entire management system for human factors with the control means of"Screening-Correction-Monitoring"is suggested.