铁道标准设计
鐵道標準設計
철도표준설계
RAILWAY STANDARD DESIGN
2014年
11期
76-79,80
,共5页
高速铁路%铁路桥梁%贝叶斯网络%风险矩阵%运营风险评估
高速鐵路%鐵路橋樑%貝葉斯網絡%風險矩陣%運營風險評估
고속철로%철로교량%패협사망락%풍험구진%운영풍험평고
High-speed railway%Railway bridges%Bayesian network%Risk matrix%Operational risk as-sessment
针对山区高速铁路桥梁风险情况复杂且影响巨大的特点，提出基于模糊贝叶斯网络，建立山区高速铁路桥梁运营风险评估模型。将山区高速铁路桥梁风险损失划分成3类，分别列出各类损失的风险因素，构建桥梁运营风险概率评估的贝叶斯网络，通过专家调查法统计出桥梁风险因素的概率等级分布，并根据链式传递规则计算出风险事故的概率等级分布。然后，结合风险矩阵对桥梁运营风险水平进行评估。最后，利用该方法分析贵广高速铁路上云阳双线特大桥的运营风险。结果表明，建立的模型计算过程简便，评价结果符合实际，具有较高的实用性。
針對山區高速鐵路橋樑風險情況複雜且影響巨大的特點，提齣基于模糊貝葉斯網絡，建立山區高速鐵路橋樑運營風險評估模型。將山區高速鐵路橋樑風險損失劃分成3類，分彆列齣各類損失的風險因素，構建橋樑運營風險概率評估的貝葉斯網絡，通過專傢調查法統計齣橋樑風險因素的概率等級分佈，併根據鏈式傳遞規則計算齣風險事故的概率等級分佈。然後，結閤風險矩陣對橋樑運營風險水平進行評估。最後，利用該方法分析貴廣高速鐵路上雲暘雙線特大橋的運營風險。結果錶明，建立的模型計算過程簡便，評價結果符閤實際，具有較高的實用性。
침대산구고속철로교량풍험정황복잡차영향거대적특점，제출기우모호패협사망락，건립산구고속철로교량운영풍험평고모형。장산구고속철로교량풍험손실화분성3류，분별렬출각류손실적풍험인소，구건교량운영풍험개솔평고적패협사망락，통과전가조사법통계출교량풍험인소적개솔등급분포，병근거련식전체규칙계산출풍험사고적개솔등급분포。연후，결합풍험구진대교량운영풍험수평진행평고。최후，이용해방법분석귀엄고속철로상운양쌍선특대교적운영풍험。결과표명，건립적모형계산과정간편，평개결과부합실제，구유교고적실용성。
In this paper, a fuzzy Bayesian network is applied to assess the operational risk of high-speed railway bridges in mountainous area. Firstly, the risk losses are classified into three categories, and the risk factors are listed for each loss. Secondly, the Bayesian network is used to estimat the risk probability based on expert research and chain transmission rule. Then, the risk matrix is applied to assess risk level. Finally, the operational risk of Yunyang extra-long double line bridge located on Guizhou-Guangxi high-speed railway is assessed based on the above method. The research results show that the model is simple, reliable and high in applicability to assess operational risk of high-speed railway bridges.
