CAJ | 학술논문

平潭近岸海域岸线曲折，周边岛礁众多，海底地形复杂，是福建省海难事故的高发区．本研究建立了平潭近岸海域海上目标物漂移轨迹的预测系统，该系统通过风场和流场的数值模型获取海面动力环境信息，采用拉格朗日算法实现对海上目标物漂移轨迹的预测追踪．其中海流模型采用ROMS（regional ocean modeling system）模型构建，模型水平方向上最高分辨率为100m，垂向上分为16层，并考虑干湿边界，以体现复杂海岸线和水深地形．通过验证分析，潮位、流速和流向的模拟平均绝对误差分别为0．20 m、0．12 m/s和26°．通过平潭近岸2个浮子实验，结果表明，浮子漂移过程中受潮流和局地地形的影响明显，对漂移模型在平潭近岸海域的适用性进行初步验证，浮子模拟轨迹与实际漂移过程基本吻合，模拟时段内最大偏差距离为2．8km，系统可以为平潭近岸海域海上突发事故应急决策提供参考．
평담근안해역안선곡절，주변도초음다，해저지형복잡，시복건성해난사고적고발구．본연구건립료평담근안해역해상목표물표이궤적적예측계통，해계통통과풍장화류장적수치모형획취해면동력배경신식，채용랍격랑일산법실현대해상목표물표이궤적적예측추종．기중해류모형채용ROMS（regional ocean modeling system）모형구건，모형수평방향상최고분변솔위100m，수향상분위16층，병고필간습변계，이체현복잡해안선화수심지형．통과험증분석，조위、류속화류향적모의평균절대오차분별위0．20 m、0．12 m/s화26°．통과평담근안2개부자실험，결과표명，부자표이과정중수조류화국지지형적영향명현，대표이모형재평담근안해역적괄용성진행초보험증，부자모의궤적여실제표이과정기본문합，모의시단내최대편차거리위2．8km，계통가이위평담근안해역해상돌발사고응급결책제공삼고．
Pingtan coast in Fujian Province is an accident-prone area due to its irregular coastline,serried islets and complex topography.This paper develops a trajectory forecast system for accidental drifts.The target is tracked with Lagrange method under given ocean conditions which are obtained via atmosphere and ocean numerical models.The ocean model used here is regional ocean modelling system (ROMS)with wet-dry mode.The horizontal spatial reso-lution is 100 meters and vertical resolution is 16 layers,which is fine enough to resolve the complex topography. Validation analysis shows that,the model's mean absolute errors for tide elevation,flow velocity and flow direction are 0.20 m,0.12 m /s and 26 degrees,respectively.Two floats were released in seawater 3 km offshore to further verify model's applicability in Pingtan waters.The analysis of float trajectories and velocities show that drifts are mainly affected by the tide and the local terrain.The simulation of float trajectories are consistent with the observa-tion on a maximum spatial deviation of 2.8 km.The trajectory forecast system is proved to be reliable in predicting path information of drifts in Pingtan coastal waters.