CAJ | 학술논문

政府财政支出如何影响居民消费一直是国内外研究的热点，但并没有形成一致的结论。文章通过将通货膨胀率引入两者的关系系统中，构造门限模型和平滑转换回归模型对其进行了实证研究。研究结果发现，通货膨胀在政府财政支出如何影响居民消费中起门限或转换作用，存在着某个通货膨胀率，政府财政支出在其两侧会以两种不同机制影响居民消费；政府财政支出增加会对当期居民消费存在挤出作用，对下一期居民消费起挤入作用，但从其综合影响程度来看，挤入作用要强于挤出作用。文章最后根据研究结论给出了一些政策建议。
정부재정지출여하영향거민소비일직시국내외연구적열점，단병몰유형성일치적결론。문장통과장통화팽창솔인입량자적관계계통중，구조문한모형화평활전환회귀모형대기진행료실증연구。연구결과발현，통화팽창재정부재정지출여하영향거민소비중기문한혹전환작용，존재착모개통화팽창솔，정부재정지출재기량측회이량충불동궤제영향거민소비；정부재정지출증가회대당기거민소비존재제출작용，대하일기거민소비기제입작용，단종기종합영향정도래간，제입작용요강우제출작용。문장최후근거연구결론급출료일사정책건의。
How government expengiture affects consumption has been a hot research topic at home and a-broad, but a consistent conclusion did not has been formd. In this paper, the inflation will be introducted to the relationship systems, and analyse it based on Threshold model and Smooth Transition Regression model. The results showed that inflation plays the role of threshold or conversion in government expendi-ture affecting the consumer, there is a certain inflation rate,government expenditure will be affect the consumption in two different mechanisms on both sides; government expenditure will squeezed out the consumption in the current period and squeezed into it in the next time , but its overall impact, the for-ward effect is stronger than squeeze out. Finally, the paper gives some inspiration based on the conclu-sions.