CAJ | 학술논문

目的通过分析2009~2013年每季度门诊人次变化趋势，找到季节指数，预测2014年各季度门诊人次。方法运用趋势季节模型建立预测回归方程。结果预测2014年全年门诊人次143.74万人次，预测2014年前两个季度门诊人次正确率97.64%。结论本例预测效果满意，趋势季节预测方法对加强门诊管理有帮助。
목적통과분석2009~2013년매계도문진인차변화추세，조도계절지수，예측2014년각계도문진인차。방법운용추세계절모형건립예측회귀방정。결과예측2014년전년문진인차143.74만인차，예측2014년전량개계도문진인차정학솔97.64%。결론본례예측효과만의，추세계절예측방법대가강문진관리유방조。
Objective Through the analysis of 2009~2013 per quarter outpatient visits change trend, find seasonal index, predicted in 2014 outpatient visits each quarter. Methods Using the trend season model to predict the regression equation. Results The forecast 2014 1.4374 mil ion outpatient visits, a predicted 2014 years ago two quarter outpatient visits accuracy 97.64%. Conclusion The prediction ef ect of this example is satisfied, seasonal trend prediction method is helpful to strengthen the management of outpatient service.