CAJ | 학술논문

为克服地下水可开采量确定过程中确定性模型的局限性、失真和参数确定困难等弊端，合理的确定地下水可开采量，基于研究区不同区域地下水水位与开采量监测资料，采用多元线性回归和非线性多元回归统计方法对不同情况下地下水最大开采量进行探讨。结果表明：1964-1990年期间百口泉水源地地下水开采量在持续增加，并以1976年前增加较明显，且地下水水位均表现为下降趋势；非线性多元回归分析法对降深与开采量拟合的结果和误差精度均优于多元线性回归分析法；基于拟合的非线性多元回归方程，可确定水源地正常运行条件下的开采量为1391万 m3、极限开采条件下的开采量1856万 m3、疏干开采条件下的开采量1992万 m3。
위극복지하수가개채량학정과정중학정성모형적국한성、실진화삼수학정곤난등폐단，합리적학정지하수가개채량，기우연구구불동구역지하수수위여개채량감측자료，채용다원선성회귀화비선성다원회귀통계방법대불동정황하지하수최대개채량진행탐토。결과표명：1964-1990년기간백구천수원지지하수개채량재지속증가，병이1976년전증가교명현，차지하수수위균표현위하강추세；비선성다원회귀분석법대강심여개채량의합적결과화오차정도균우우다원선성회귀분석법；기우의합적비선성다원회귀방정，가학정수원지정상운행조건하적개채량위1391만 m3、겁한개채조건하적개채량1856만 m3、소간개채조건하적개채량1992만 m3。
In order to overcome the negative sides on determination of the maximum groundwater exploitable quantity by deterministic models,such as limitations of the model,distortion and the difficulties on the determination of the parameters so on,and reasonably determine the amount of available groundwater,based on monitoring data of water level and exploita-tion,the maximum exploitation of groundwater in different scenarios is discussed by multiple linear regression and nonlinear regression statistical methods.It found that the groundwater extraction was increasing during 1 9 6 4~1 9 9 0 in Bakouquan water resource area,and before 1 9 7 6 the increase was more pronounced,groundwater levels showed a downward trend. Nonlinear regression analysis method is superior to multiple linear regression analysis,fitting result is good on drawdown and groundwater exploitation,and error is smaller.The maximum exploitation of groundwater in different Scenarios is Cal-culated by the fitting multiple nonlinear regression equations,the exploitation is 1 3 9 1 × 1 0 4 m3 under normal operating con-ditions on water resource area,under the extreme exploitation conditions is 1 8 5 6 × 1 0 4 m3 ,under dewatering mining is 1 992×104 m3 .