CAJ | 학술논문

利用东亚地区1961～2005年高分辨率（0．5°×0．5°）降水格点数据和参加CMIP5的42个全球气候模式数值模拟结果，通过对简单降水强度指数（降水距平百分率）的计算，对比分析了观测和多模式集合的中国地区干旱面积、干旱频率的时空分布以及干旱分布型的变化，评估了全球气候模式的模拟能力。结果表明：多个全球气候模式的集合结果对中国区域的干旱变化特征有一定的模拟能力，能较好地模拟出中国年平均干旱指数的时间变化趋势，但模拟的干旱强度偏弱；多模式集合模拟的严重干旱面积与观测值的变化趋势基本一致，与观测相比，模拟的长江以南干旱强度偏强，西北干旱强度偏弱；通过EOF的分析表明，多模式集合可以较好地模拟出西北与长江以南呈反位相及我国东部地区的“旱-涝-旱”或“涝-旱-涝”的分布型。
이용동아지구1961～2005년고분변솔（0．5°×0．5°）강수격점수거화삼가CMIP5적42개전구기후모식수치모의결과，통과대간단강수강도지수（강수거평백분솔）적계산，대비분석료관측화다모식집합적중국지구간한면적、간한빈솔적시공분포이급간한분포형적변화，평고료전구기후모식적모의능력。결과표명：다개전구기후모식적집합결과대중국구역적간한변화특정유일정적모의능력，능교호지모의출중국년평균간한지수적시간변화추세，단모의적간한강도편약；다모식집합모의적엄중간한면적여관측치적변화추세기본일치，여관측상비，모의적장강이남간한강도편강，서북간한강도편약；통과EOF적분석표명，다모식집합가이교호지모의출서북여장강이남정반위상급아국동부지구적“한-로-한”혹“로-한-로”적분포형。
The observed and simulated precipitation anomaly percentages in China are calculated by using the 0.5°×0.5°gridded pre-cipitation data and simulation results from 42 global climate models of CMIP5 ,then the ability of global climate models of CMIP5 to simulate drought is assessed by analysis of changes of drought area,drought frequency and drought pattern distributions in China.The results show that the multi-model ensemble simulation results could reproduce the observed drought characteristics in China,and the moldels could well simulate the trends of annual averaged drought index and severe drought area.However,compared to observations, the trends of drought index was weaker,the drought frequency was stronger in the south of the Yangtze River and was weaker in the northwestern areas in simulations.Based on EOF analysis,the models could reproduce the anti-phase relationship between the north-west and the Yangtze River,as well as spatial patterns of drought-flood-drought or flood-drought-flood in eastern China.