CAJ | 학술논문

雅砻江流域蕴藏丰富水能资源,是我国水电开发的重点流域.长时间序列水文数据是水电站设计、水电开发生态效益评估的重要基础数据.当前雅砻江流域水文站点密度稀疏,水文数据较为缺乏.分布式水文模型是估算长时间序列河川流量的常用工具.本研究以雅砻江流域甘孜上游地区为研究区域,探讨使用数据较少的概念性水文模型HYMOD在雅砻江流域的适用性.采用通用似然不确定法 GLUE作为 HYMOD自动校正及不确定性分析方法.模拟结果表明,模型率定与验证结果 NS系数值均超过0.74,该模型在研究区域的应用效果较好,能够用于估算雅砻江流域长时间序列河川流量.
아롱강류역온장봉부수능자원,시아국수전개발적중점류역.장시간서렬수문수거시수전참설계、수전개발생태효익평고적중요기출수거.당전아롱강류역수문참점밀도희소,수문수거교위결핍.분포식수문모형시고산장시간서렬하천류량적상용공구.본연구이아롱강류역감자상유지구위연구구역,탐토사용수거교소적개념성수문모형HYMOD재아롱강류역적괄용성.채용통용사연불학정법 GLUE작위 HYMOD자동교정급불학정성분석방법.모의결과표명,모형솔정여험증결과 NS계수치균초과0.74,해모형재연구구역적응용효과교호,능구용우고산아롱강류역장시간서렬하천류량.
Yalong River is the third largest river in the thirteen hydropower bases in China,its total installed capacity is 30 000 MWatt.Long-term serial records of river discharges are essential for hydropower development,hydropower station design,water resource management,and assessment of ecological effects in the Yalong River basin. Existing monitoring network is not sufficient to provide enough hydrological information on the basin.Hydrological model is a popular tool to estimate hydrological data in both space and time series. In this study, the Hydrological MODel (HYMOD ) was selected to evaluate simulation performance in the upper Yalong River basin.Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE)was used for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. Satisfactory result was achieved in model calibration and validation,with Nash-Sutcliff ecoefficiency values >0.74,indicating that the hydrological model performed well and HYMOD application in the study area was acceptable.