CAJ | 학술논문

依据1962-2011年重庆市年降水量资料，采用均值标准差法建立降水量丰枯级别，分为枯、偏枯、平、偏丰和丰5个水平年.以各阶自相关系数为权数，用加权马尔可夫链计算2012年重庆市降水量，通过验证发现计算出的状态与实际情况相符，预测降水量值与实测值误差为7.9%，说明该方法有效可行.进一步采用马尔可夫链的遍历性原理，计算重庆市近50年的年降水量极限分布，结果表明重庆市年降水量处于平水年的可能性最大，出现周期约为2.9年.
의거1962-2011년중경시년강수량자료，채용균치표준차법건립강수량봉고급별，분위고、편고、평、편봉화봉5개수평년.이각계자상관계수위권수，용가권마이가부련계산2012년중경시강수량，통과험증발현계산출적상태여실제정황상부，예측강수량치여실측치오차위7.9%，설명해방법유효가행.진일보채용마이가부련적편력성원리，계산중경시근50년적년강수량겁한분포，결과표명중경시년강수량처우평수년적가능성최대，출현주기약위2.9년.
Based on the annual precipitation data from 1962 to 2012 in Chongqing,by taking the standard deviation method of means,a classification of precipitation containing 5 levels is set up,namely,the dry years,the slightly dry years, the normal years,the slightly wet years and the wet years.Take each autocorrelation coefficient as the weight number,the weighted Markov chain was used to calculate the yearly amount of precipitation of Chongqing in 2012,and the confirmatory test finds that the results thus worked out is consistent with the actual condition.The error between the value of forecasted amount of Precipitation and the value gained by actual measurement is 7.9%,which proves the validity of the said method.By adop-ting the ergodic theorem of the Markov chain,the limit distribution for the annual amount of precipitation in Chongqing for the recent 50 years is calculated,whose results indicate the possibility of the annual amount of precipitation in Chongqing falls most probably into the range of being a normal year with a recurrence period of about 2.9 years.