CAJ | 학술논문

伴随着我国新型城镇化的快速推进，城镇电力需求不断增长，这对电网供电能力提出了更高的要求。以我国不同地区新型城镇的调研数据为基础，提出新型城镇的分类原则和分类标准；采用相关分析法确定各类型新型城镇电力需求的影响因素，分析新型城镇的发展演化规律；采用基于主成分分析的分类电量预测模型，预测各类型典型城镇电量增速，总结各类型新型城镇总体发展趋势，实际乡镇预测结果验证了模型和方法的有效性。
반수착아국신형성진화적쾌속추진，성진전력수구불단증장，저대전망공전능력제출료경고적요구。이아국불동지구신형성진적조연수거위기출，제출신형성진적분류원칙화분류표준；채용상관분석법학정각류형신형성진전력수구적영향인소，분석신형성진적발전연화규률；채용기우주성분분석적분류전량예측모형，예측각류형전형성진전량증속，총결각류형신형성진총체발전추세，실제향진예측결과험증료모형화방법적유효성。
With the rapid development of new urbanization in China, the urban electricity demand is growing, which sets an even higher demand on the capability of network power supply. Based on the research data of new towns in different areas, the principles and standards of new towns’ classification are put forward. The factors which have effect on power demand of different types of new towns are determined by using correlation analysis and the evolution of the development of new towns is analyzed. Based on principal component analysis (PCA), forecasting model of classified electricity demand is used to forecast the growth of electricity demand of various types of typical new towns. The general developing trend of various types of those new towns is summarized as well. Meanwhile, the model and method are validated by the examples of practical towns.