CAJ | 학술논문

针对常规突变评价法存在的综合评价值过高、优劣方案的综合评价值过于接近的缺点，提出了改进的突变评价法。采用S型曲线分布作为拟合函数，将初始综合评价值映射到底层指标隶属度上得到改进的突变评价值，使其分布范围有效扩大，评价结果的优劣更为清晰。经算例分析，并将该方法应用于燕山水库施工方案的风险评价与比选中，验证了所提改进方法的合理性，对工程建设具有较好的指导作用。
침대상규돌변평개법존재적종합평개치과고、우렬방안적종합평개치과우접근적결점，제출료개진적돌변평개법。채용S형곡선분포작위의합함수，장초시종합평개치영사도저층지표대속도상득도개진적돌변평개치，사기분포범위유효확대，평개결과적우렬경위청석。경산례분석，병장해방법응용우연산수고시공방안적풍험평개여비선중，험증료소제개진방법적합이성，대공정건설구유교호적지도작용。
There are two major problems identified in the application of conventional catastrophe theory eval?uation method:(a) overestimated assessment values and (b) the indistinguishability of the final values from both prior and inferior projects. In order to solve the above-mentioned drawbacks, an improved catas?trophe theory evaluation method is proposed in this paper. In this method,an S-curved distribution is incor?porated as a fitting function. The initial comprehensive evaluation value is mapped to the underlying index membership to acquire improved value of catastrophe theory evaluation method, effectively expanding the scope of the distribution and dramatically clarifying the merits of the evaluation. Through empirical analysis and applying the method to risk evaluation and comparison of the construction program of Yanshan Reser?voir, the author verifies rationality of the proposed methods, which preferably offer instructions to engineer?ing construction.