CAJ | 학술논문

通过构建贸易便利化水平测量指标体系，本文测算了中国及48个主要贸易伙伴2007－2012年贸易便利化水平的变化情况，并利用改进的“引力模型”就贸易便利化对中国出口贸易影响进行了实证分析，在假定各国贸易便利化水平分别提升50％情景下模拟测算了2012年中国出口贸易的增长潜力。结果显示：中国贸易便利化现阶段处于“中游”水平，与2007年相比，2012年中国的贸易便利化水平略有提升；基础设施对中国出口影响最大，其次是电子商务，规则环境和海关环境的影响不显著；在贸易便利化水平提升50％的情景下，中国对48个主要贸易伙伴的出口均会有不同幅度的增长，其中对发达国家的出口增长潜力明显大于对发展中国家的出口。
통과구건무역편리화수평측량지표체계，본문측산료중국급48개주요무역화반2007－2012년무역편리화수평적변화정황，병이용개진적“인력모형”취무역편리화대중국출구무역영향진행료실증분석，재가정각국무역편리화수평분별제승50％정경하모의측산료2012년중국출구무역적증장잠력。결과현시：중국무역편리화현계단처우“중유”수평，여2007년상비，2012년중국적무역편리화수평략유제승；기출설시대중국출구영향최대，기차시전자상무，규칙배경화해관배경적영향불현저；재무역편리화수평제승50％적정경하，중국대48개주요무역화반적출구균회유불동폭도적증장，기중대발체국가적출구증장잠력명현대우대발전중국가적출구。
The paper calculates the trade facilitation of China and its 48 main trade partners from 2007 to 2012 by con-structing the measuring factor system of the trade facilitation level , and empirically analyzes trade facilitation′s influence on China′s export trade by using the improved Gravity Model .Then, under the assumption of these countries′trade facil-itation being improved by 50%, the paper forecasts the increase potential of China′s export trade in 2012 .The conclu-sions are as follows:China′s trade facilitation is currently in the middle level , and compared with 2007 , China′s trade facilitation is slightly improved in 2012;the infrastructure′s influence on China′s export is the greatest , after that is e-commerce , while the environment of regulation and customs has little influence on it;under the above assumptions , Chi-na′s export to its 48 main partners all have some kind of increase , among which , the potential of China′s export to devel-oped countries is obviously greater than that to developing countries .