CAJ | 학술논문

本文以中国1993－2013年的国民经济数据为样本，通过参数化和数值模拟估算，比较了相关拥挤性和规模拥挤性对均衡增长路径上主要变量均衡值的影响，同时分析了两种拥挤性对扩张性财政政策有效性及最优财政政策的影响。结果表明相关拥挤性和规模拥挤性与长期经济增长率负相关，相关拥挤性与均衡增长路径上主要经济变量人均取值正相关，规模拥挤性与均衡增长路径上主要经济变量人均取值负相关；相关拥挤性减弱了财政支出政策的扩张效应，对税收政策的扩张效应影响较小；规模拥挤性对财政支出政策和税收政策的扩张效应影响比较强烈，对最优宏观税负和最优财政支出规模没有影响；最优宏观税负随着相关拥挤性的增加而增加，最优财政支出规模随着相关拥挤性增加而减少。
본문이중국1993－2013년적국민경제수거위양본，통과삼수화화수치모의고산，비교료상관옹제성화규모옹제성대균형증장로경상주요변량균형치적영향，동시분석료량충옹제성대확장성재정정책유효성급최우재정정책적영향。결과표명상관옹제성화규모옹제성여장기경제증장솔부상관，상관옹제성여균형증장로경상주요경제변량인균취치정상관，규모옹제성여균형증장로경상주요경제변량인균취치부상관；상관옹제성감약료재정지출정책적확장효응，대세수정책적확장효응영향교소；규모옹제성대재정지출정책화세수정책적확장효응영향비교강렬，대최우굉관세부화최우재정지출규모몰유영향；최우굉관세부수착상관옹제성적증가이증가，최우재정지출규모수착상관옹제성증가이감소。
Based on Pintea and Turnovsky (2006), taking the national economic data of China from 1993 to 2013 as the sample , this paper contrasts the influences of relative congestion and absolute congestion on the main variable equilib -rium value in the balanced growth path , and analyzes the effect of effectiveness of the two kinds of congestion on fiscal policy, as well as the optimal fiscal policy by simulating a calibrated economy .We find that the rate of long -term eco-nomic growth is negatively related to relative congestion and absolute congestion , relative congestion is positively relative to scale-adjusted per capital quantities , while absolute congestion is on the contrary , relative congestion weakens the expansion effects of fiscal expenditure but has little effects on tax policy , however , there are obvious negative effects that absolute congestion plays on both fiscal expenditure policy and tax policy , absolute congestion has no effects on the opti-mal fiscal policy , while relative congestion is negatively related to optimal government expenditure policy , but positively related to optimal tax .