CAJ | 학술논문

基于计量经济学方法，本文从城乡居民收入与旅游消费数据稳定性与因果关系、城乡居民收入与旅游花费水平回归分析等方面，分析了中国城乡居民收入对旅游消费的影响。研究结果表明：收入水平与旅游边际消费倾向对城乡居民旅游花费影响差异明显，提升城镇居民旅游边际消费倾向与农村居民纯收入水平，是提升我国城乡居民旅游总花费的关键；城乡居民旅游消费对收入过度敏感性均过低，应采取有效措施降低城乡居民在食品、住房、医疗、教育等方面的消费支出，改善城乡居民旅游消费对收入的过度敏感性，促进旅游消费水平提升；城乡居民收入结构对城乡居民旅游花费影响具有较大差异，在城乡居民收入翻番背景下，城乡居民、尤其是农村居民旅游消费水平将得到大幅度提升，并将在国民经济增长中发挥重要作用。
기우계량경제학방법，본문종성향거민수입여여유소비수거은정성여인과관계、성향거민수입여여유화비수평회귀분석등방면，분석료중국성향거민수입대여유소비적영향。연구결과표명：수입수평여여유변제소비경향대성향거민여유화비영향차이명현，제승성진거민여유변제소비경향여농촌거민순수입수평，시제승아국성향거민여유총화비적관건；성향거민여유소비대수입과도민감성균과저，응채취유효조시강저성향거민재식품、주방、의료、교육등방면적소비지출，개선성향거민여유소비대수입적과도민감성，촉진여유소비수평제승；성향거민수입결구대성향거민여유화비영향구유교대차이，재성향거민수입번번배경하，성향거민、우기시농촌거민여유소비수평장득도대폭도제승，병장재국민경제증장중발휘중요작용。
Based on the econometric method , the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of income of Chinese urban and rural residents on tourism consumption and difference from the aspects of data stability and causality , as well as hori-zontal regression analysis .The results show that: the influence of income level and the marginal propensity of tourism consumption on urban and rural residents′tourism consumption is obvious , to promote urban residents′tourism marginal propensity of consumption and the rural residents′income level are the key to promoting urban and rural residents′total tourism consumption in China;the urban and rural residents′tourism consumption for the income of excessive sensitivity is too weak, we should take effective measures to reduce the urban and rural residents′food, housing, medical care, ed-ucation and other living expenses , improve the income of urban and rural residents′tourism consumption sensitivity level to promote the level of tourism consumption; the influence of urban and rural residents′income structure on urban and rural residents′tourism consumption has larger differences , urban and rural residents , especially the tourism consump-tion level of rural residents will improve significantly , and will play an important role in the national economic growth un-der the background of urban and rural residents income doubled .