CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究社会经济和城市化快速发展作用下的洱海流域土地利用/覆被变化过程，以促进流域用地结构与配置的优化。基于智能体建模理论，结合GIS的数据处理和空间分析技术，利用蚁群智能算法模拟土地利用变化。针对洱海流域的现状，该文选取流域土地利用变化的影响因子，建立了智能体分类体系及其行为决策规则；基于Java语言和Repast J建模平台，完成了模型的程序设计、实现、模拟过程；针对模型的模拟结果进行了分析和验证。结果表明：蚁群算法提升了智能体模型模拟结果的精度，且基本与实际情况的空间格局保持一致。基于模拟结果分析了未来10 a（2010-2020年）洱海流域的人地关系矛盾主要表现为农业生产性用地（耕地和园地）的持续性减少与建设用地的不断增长，现有政策下的城镇化用地成本呈上升趋势。而生态用地中，湿地的增长最快，表明政府的用地规划和策略对流域的生态用地保护起到较好的宏观调控作用。
위료연구사회경제화성시화쾌속발전작용하적이해류역토지이용/복피변화과정，이촉진류역용지결구여배치적우화。기우지능체건모이론，결합GIS적수거처리화공간분석기술，이용의군지능산법모의토지이용변화。침대이해류역적현상，해문선취류역토지이용변화적영향인자，건립료지능체분류체계급기행위결책규칙；기우Java어언화Repast J건모평태，완성료모형적정서설계、실현、모의과정；침대모형적모의결과진행료분석화험증。결과표명：의군산법제승료지능체모형모의결과적정도，차기본여실제정황적공간격국보지일치。기우모의결과분석료미래10 a（2010-2020년）이해류역적인지관계모순주요표현위농업생산성용지（경지화완지）적지속성감소여건설용지적불단증장，현유정책하적성진화용지성본정상승추세。이생태용지중，습지적증장최쾌，표명정부적용지규화화책략대류역적생태용지보호기도교호적굉관조공작용。
Studies of Erhai Basin indicate that Land use change by human activities in the watershed is the leading cause of regional climate, hydrology, water quality and ecological changes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationships between human activities and land use/cover change (LUCC), which is beneficial to offer the scientific decision support for reasonable land planning and land use. Combined with GIS technologies of spatial analysis and using the artificial intelligence algorithm Ant Colony Optimization(ACO) for optimizing, in this paper, we applied the method of Agent-based modeling to establish the spatiotemporal process model of LUCC in order to simulating the dynamic change of land use in whole watershed. Firstly, we made a choice and evaluation for impact factors of land use changes, as well as constructions of the cost of land use change equations in order to construct more reasonable decision rules of land use choice. Then, we have extracted three agents composed by microcosmic and macrocosmic systems which were farm agent, resident agent and government agent. Also, microcosmic rules of decision and behavior were created according to ACO. On the other hand, we have established macrocosmic decision rules according to a resistance coefficient system from the land use planning, as well as a comprehensive decision rule. And then, based on Java language and Repast platform of modeling, the program design, implementation and simulation of model were given in detail. Finally, the validation, calibration and verification of model and analysis of the simulated results were also conducted. Our conclusions from the experiment were three: 1) Ant colony algorithm was more effective in promoting the significant moving and decision of agents, and the simulated results gained better accuracies in both mathematics (up 5.6%) and geometry (up 3.4%) than using a random algorithm. However, the merit of ACO was not suitable for its use in all of land-use types. For an instance, there were no any improvements and sometimes even reduction in accuracy for those land-use types which were less affected by human activities, such as forest, grassland and wetland uses. Thereby, we suggested that ACO was more sensitive to interaction between human and land-use changes, and it was suitable for optimizing human behaviors and decisions of land-use transfer. 2) If the policy on land use was kept unchanged, the major contradiction between human and land in the future ten years should be the persistent reduction of agricultural land (127.64 hm2 cultivated lands and 11.20 hm2 garden lands) and the continuous increase of urbanized land (95.80 hm2). This indicated a big cost of urbanization in Erhai Lake Basin, which also gave a warning of increasing impervious surfaces (IS) produced in future rapid urbanization, and the IS may raise risks of urban non-point source pollution in the future. 3) The fast increasing of wetlands (growth rate of 50.07%was the fastest in the change of all land use types) indicated that the governmental land use policies to ecosystem protection have played a better role in macro control of land resources allocation. From this research, we suggested that the local government should maintain the existing strategies of ecological environment protection to reduce the risk of water pollution in Erhai Lake Basin. The competition in the market economy model of land-resources-commercial should be encouraged to balance the next major conflicts between human activities and land resources.