CAJ | 학술논문

本文以新浪微博为研究平台，以打砸日系车突发公共事件为研究实例，基于ELM模型提出了信息内容（内容的创作类型、内容的表达方式、内容的拓展线索）和信源特征（信源引证标识与信源补充线索）对微博舆情传播影响的相关假设，并构建回归模型加以验证。实证结果表明：博文内容的创作方式、信源的补充线索对舆情传播效果存在影响，在转发模型中情感型博文的传播效果好于事实型和调侃型博文；而内容拓展线索和信源引证标识会对微博舆情传播效果起负面作用。研究结果可以直观的从信息内容和信源特征视角认识微博舆情传播影响要素，并为突发公共事件的预警和舆论引导提供借鉴与参考。
본문이신랑미박위연구평태，이타잡일계차돌발공공사건위연구실례，기우ELM모형제출료신식내용（내용적창작류형、내용적표체방식、내용적탁전선색）화신원특정（신원인증표식여신원보충선색）대미박여정전파영향적상관가설，병구건회귀모형가이험증。실증결과표명：박문내용적창작방식、신원적보충선색대여정전파효과존재영향，재전발모형중정감형박문적전파효과호우사실형화조간형박문；이내용탁전선색화신원인증표식회대미박여정전파효과기부면작용。연구결과가이직관적종신식내용화신원특정시각인식미박여정전파영향요소，병위돌발공공사건적예경화여론인도제공차감여삼고。
Taking Japanese car smashing events as research example and Sina mircoblog as research platform, this paper verifies several proposed hypotheses and examines the impact factors of microblog opinion communication from the perspective of content (type, expression and clue) and source (quotation and clue) of information based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model. The results showed that: the type of the content and the clue of the source were directly affect microblog opinion communication, and the communication effect of affecitve content and ironic content were better than that of the factual content in the retweet model; The clue of the content and the quotation of the source had a significant negative effect on microblog opinion communication. The results of the study can help us to understand the impact factors of microblog opinion communication from the perspective of source and content of microblog opinion, and can also provide references for early warning and leading of Internet public opinions.