CAJ | 학술논문

近几年来我国长期国际收支顺差导致外汇占款不断增加，本文通过实证分析外汇占款对我国通货膨胀的影响程度。基于VAR模型及格兰杰检验，选取2003年1月到2012年6月的月度相关经济数据分析外汇占款、货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响，发现外汇占款和货币供应量对通货膨胀具有一定的滞后性，但具有较显著影响，但二者均小于物价指数对通货膨胀的影响度，而且货币供应量要比外汇占款对通货膨胀的影响滞后大约一年。使用格兰杰检验验证外汇占款不是通货膨胀的直接原因，而是外汇占款增加引起货币供应量增加，而货币供应量增加引起了通货膨胀水平的提高。外汇占款与通货膨胀具有长期稳定的均衡关系。该结论对于通过管理外汇占款控制通货膨胀水平具有较重要的学术价值和现实意义。
근궤년래아국장기국제수지순차도치외회점관불단증가，본문통과실증분석외회점관대아국통화팽창적영향정도。기우VAR모형급격란걸검험，선취2003년1월도2012년6월적월도상관경제수거분석외회점관、화폐공응량대통화팽창적영향，발현외회점관화화폐공응량대통화팽창구유일정적체후성，단구유교현저영향，단이자균소우물개지수대통화팽창적영향도，이차화폐공응량요비외회점관대통화팽창적영향체후대약일년。사용격란걸검험험증외회점관불시통화팽창적직접원인，이시외회점관증가인기화폐공응량증가，이화폐공응량증가인기료통화팽창수평적제고。외회점관여통화팽창구유장기은정적균형관계。해결론대우통과관리외회점관공제통화팽창수평구유교중요적학술개치화현실의의。
The long-terminternational balance of payments surplus leads China ’ s foreign exchange to increase .Through the empirical analysis to explore the influence degree of the foreign exchange inflation in China.Based on VAR model and granger test, we select monthly economic data from January 2003 to June 2012 to analysis the influence about the foreign exchange and the money supply to inflation , finds that foreign exchange and the money supply to inflation has certain hysteresis and a significant impact .At the same time , both are less than the price index for the effect on inflation, the influence of money supply to inflation lag for about one year than foreign exchange .Using granger test verifies that the foreign ex-change is not the directly cause of inflation , but increase about money supply due to the increase foreign exchange and the improvement of increasing money supply causes inflation.Foreign exchange and the inflation have long -term stable equilibrium relationship.This conclusions have a signifi-cant importance for the academic value and practical significance for controlling inflation through Foreign exchange .