CAJ | 학술논문

提2009年以来，中国西南地区连续4年秋、冬、春季出现严重干旱，持续时间长、影响范围大、干旱程度重，给旱区农林业生产和人民生活带来严重影响，造成巨大的经济损失。本文利用多种资料从大尺度大气环流、水汽输送、太平洋及印度洋海温、平流层极涡等方面分析了此次连续干旱的原因。结果表明：南支槽强度偏弱、孟加拉湾水汽输送偏少以及弱极涡背景下，异常波活动造成的 AO 负异常引起的冷空气路径偏东是这4年持续干旱的共同特点。热带海表温度的异常变化对西南地区干旱的影响也不容忽视，主要表现在对孟加拉湾和南海水汽输送的阻碍上。La Nina 事件中，热带印度洋冬、春季海表温度的异常变化对干旱影响更为突出。冬、春季平流层和对流层的动力耦合作用结果使得 AO 位相发生变化，其中异常负位相的强度及持续时间对这4年西南地区秋、冬、春连旱的影响显著。
제2009년이래，중국서남지구련속4년추、동、춘계출현엄중간한，지속시간장、영향범위대、간한정도중，급한구농임업생산화인민생활대래엄중영향，조성거대적경제손실。본문이용다충자료종대척도대기배류、수기수송、태평양급인도양해온、평류층겁와등방면분석료차차련속간한적원인。결과표명：남지조강도편약、맹가랍만수기수송편소이급약겁와배경하，이상파활동조성적 AO 부이상인기적랭공기로경편동시저4년지속간한적공동특점。열대해표온도적이상변화대서남지구간한적영향야불용홀시，주요표현재대맹가랍만화남해수기수송적조애상。La Nina 사건중，열대인도양동、춘계해표온도적이상변화대간한영향경위돌출。동、춘계평류층화대류층적동력우합작용결과사득 AO 위상발생변화，기중이상부위상적강도급지속시간대저4년서남지구추、동、춘련한적영향현저。
Severe droughts occurred in Southwest China continuously in 4 years’autumn,winter,spring beginning from 2009.Because of the long duration,large scope and heavy degrees,the drought has caused huge economic losses,seriously impacting on agroforestry production and people’s life in arid zones.In this paper,the causes of the continuous drought are analyzed from the impacts of the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric circulation,water vapor transportation,the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST,stratospheric polar vortex strength by analyzing a variety of data.The results show that the common backgrounds of the 4 years’continuous drought are weaker south branch trough,less water vapor transport over the Bay of Bengal and easterly cold air mass caused by AO negative anomalies which are produced by abnormal wave activities during weak polar vortex.The abnormal changes of tropical SST during the drought over South-west China play important roles in blocking water vapor transport over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea.In the La Nina event,the effect of the tropical Indian Ocean SST changes in winter and spring is more outstanding.The phase of AO is always changed by the dynamic couple between stratosphere and tropo- sphere in winter and spring,and the intensity and duration of the abnormally negative phase of AO have significant effects on the drought that occurred in Southwest China in the autumn,winter and spring of 4 consecutive years.