CAJ | 학술논문

海上风电投资存在巨大风险。投资策略的选择对于关注该领域的海上风电投资者至关重要。风电市场上出现的新技术及政府出台的相关新政策都会影响海上风电投资者的策略选择。这种新技术和新政策的出现类似于演化博弈中的“突变”。运用演化博弈理论和复制动态方程，对海上风电市场上具有有限理性的不同类型的海上风电投资者策略选择互动机制进行研究，探讨了市场阻入程度和合作支持力度以及新技术和新政策等对海上风电投资者策略选择的影响。研究表明，减小市场阻入程度，增加合作支持力度，开发新技术和支持性政策均有利于海上风电投资者的进入。
해상풍전투자존재거대풍험。투자책략적선택대우관주해영역적해상풍전투자자지관중요。풍전시장상출현적신기술급정부출태적상관신정책도회영향해상풍전투자자적책략선택。저충신기술화신정책적출현유사우연화박혁중적“돌변”。운용연화박혁이론화복제동태방정，대해상풍전시장상구유유한이성적불동류형적해상풍전투자자책략선택호동궤제진행연구，탐토료시장조입정도화합작지지력도이급신기술화신정책등대해상풍전투자자책략선택적영향。연구표명，감소시장조입정도，증가합작지지력도，개발신기술화지지성정책균유리우해상풍전투자자적진입。
In view of the huge risk existing in the investment for offshore wind farm, the selection of investment strategy is of great importance for investors paying attention to this field. The appearence of new technologies in wind farm market and the publishing of goverment’s new policies related to this field impact the investment strategy selection of offshore wind farm investors. The appearence of new technologies and new policies is similar to the mutation in evolutionary game. Utilizing the theory of evolutionary game and replicator dynamics equation, the interactive mechanism of strategy selection for different types of offshore wind farm investors with bounded rationality in offshore wind farm market is researched, and the impacts of such factors as the degree of resistance into the market and the degree of collaboration and support as well as new technologies and new policies on strategy selection of offshore wind farm investors are discussed. Results of this research show that reducing the degree of resistance into the market, increasing the degree of collaboration and support, developing new technology and the supportive policies are favorable to the participation of offshore wind farm investors.