CAJ | 학술논문

如何评估大停电的综合损失是政府和电网企业重点关注的问题。在社会公共安全模型的基础上，建立了大停电社会综合评估指标体系及其评估模型，并分别从社会人员伤亡损失、财产损失及延误损失等方面进行了量化评估。对模型参数进行了理论分析和取值优化。结合我国电网及国家发展水平情况，以某区域为例，计算分析了大停电综合损失结果，并与国内外大停电损失统计结果相对比，验证了该评估模型的正确性和有效性。
여하평고대정전적종합손실시정부화전망기업중점관주적문제。재사회공공안전모형적기출상，건립료대정전사회종합평고지표체계급기평고모형，병분별종사회인원상망손실、재산손실급연오손실등방면진행료양화평고。대모형삼수진행료이론분석화취치우화。결합아국전망급국가발전수평정황，이모구역위례，계산분석료대정전종합손실결과，병여국내외대정전손실통계결과상대비，험증료해평고모형적정학성화유효성。
How to evaluate comprehensive loss caused by blackout is the problem both government and grid enterprises pay special attention to. Based on social public security model, a social comprehensive evaluation indicator system and corresponding evaluation model for the impact caused by blackout are established, and the quantitative evaluation is performed in the aspects of social personnel casualties, property loss and loss due to delay in service restoration. Theoretical analysis on the parameter of the established model and the optimization of the assigned values for the model parameters are carried out. Combining with actual situation of power grids in China and the national development level, taking a certain region for example the results of comprehensive losses caused by the blackout are calculated and analyzed, and the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed evaluation model are validated by comparing the obtained results with statistical results of blackout-caused losses home and abroad.