CAJ | 학술논문

基于海南省南渡江流域龙塘水文站1976—1987年和2009—2010年的逐日气象水文资料，采用 HBV-D 水文模型，通过对模型参数率定和验证，确定了适合南渡江流域的 HBV-D水文模型最优化参数。结果表明：该模型在1976—1981年率定期、1982—1987年验证期和2009—2010年验证期的 Nash-Sutcliffe 效率系数分别为0．891，0．831，0．953，相关系数分别为0．944，0．912，0．977，达到了0．01显著性水平。通过建立的南渡江流域 HBV-D水文模型进行模型反演，确定了不同前期水位（7 m，8 m，9 m，10 m，11 m）的面雨量和水位关系，根据龙塘水文站的警戒水位、10年重现期水位、30年重现期水位、50年重现期水位作为不同等级预警的临界判别条件，最终确定了不同前期水位的致灾临界面雨量指标。
기우해남성남도강류역룡당수문참1976—1987년화2009—2010년적축일기상수문자료，채용 HBV-D 수문모형，통과대모형삼수솔정화험증，학정료괄합남도강류역적 HBV-D수문모형최우화삼수。결과표명：해모형재1976—1981년솔정기、1982—1987년험증기화2009—2010년험증기적 Nash-Sutcliffe 효솔계수분별위0．891，0．831，0．953，상관계수분별위0．944，0．912，0．977，체도료0．01현저성수평。통과건립적남도강류역 HBV-D수문모형진행모형반연，학정료불동전기수위（7 m，8 m，9 m，10 m，11 m）적면우량화수위관계，근거룡당수문참적경계수위、10년중현기수위、30년중현기수위、50년중현기수위작위불동등급예경적림계판별조건，최종학정료불동전기수위적치재림계면우량지표。
Using hydrological model to determine area precipitation thresholds of rainstorm-flood hazard is a tendency of hydrological and meteorological forecast.The Nandu River Basin,locating on the north edge of Hainan Island,is the largest basin of tropical regions in China.And the frequent flood of the Nandu River Basin attracts wide public concern.The HBV (Hydrologiska Byr?ns Vattenbalansavdelning)model is a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model with multiple versions,used in more than 40 countries and regions around the world.Using HBV-D model which is suitable for large-scale basin,the basin hydrologic characteristics of the Nandu River Basin are simulated and the area precipitation threshold val-ues are determined.These effects may also provide scientific evidence for early warning in the Nandu River Basin.The model is run in terms of observed daily precipitation,air temperature during 1976-1987 and 2009-2010,and the simulated runoff is verified with corresponding hydrological observations of Longtang Hydrologic Station.Taking 1976-1981 as calibration period,several model sensitivity parameters are se-lected and calibrated by programming.Periods of 1982-1987 and 2009-2010 are selected for model vali-dating,and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and correlation coefficient are evaluated.Verifications show that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes are 0.891,0.831 and 0.953,and correlation coefficients are 0.944,0.912 and 0.977,both passing the test of 0.01 level in 3 periods.It indicates that the model can accurately simulate the Nandu River Basin hydrological characteristics.And it’s able to determine area precipitation threshold values of rainstorm-flood hazard in the Nandu River Basin. <br> The curve of stream flow and water level is simulated with historical hydrographic data of 1976-1987 when the water level is greater than or equal to 7 m.Curves of area precipitation and different previous wa-ter-levels (7 m,8 m,9 m,10 m and 11 m)are determined by hydrological model HBV-D of the Nandu River Basin.Curves can calculate how many meters the water level will rise when storm comes,in the con-dition of five previous water-levels.Finally,according to water levels of warning,10-year return period, 30-year return period and 50-year return period as critical criterions for different warning grades,the area precipitation thresholds in different previous water-levels are determined. <br> The accuracy of area precipitation threshold values are verified using observations of four floods.The result indicates that these values are suitable for forewarning,but the missing of warning is still inevita-ble.To improve timeliness and accuracy,hourly rolling forecast and early warning can be carried out.