经济与管理
經濟與管理
경제여관리
ECONOMY AND MANAGEMENT
2014年
6期
87-94
,共8页
并购%宏观经济环境%VAR模型
併購%宏觀經濟環境%VAR模型
병구%굉관경제배경%VAR모형
Mergers & Acquisitions%Macroeconomic environment%VAR model
基于宏观经济动因，研究经济发展水平、利率与股票价格指数对我国总体性并购活动的影响，实证检验结果表明：除利率之外，经济发展水平及股票价格均与总体性并购活动存在长期的均衡关系，并且为总体性并购活动的Granger原因；在短期内，经济发展水平波动与股票价格波动对并购活动波动均存在正向影响，而利率波动对并购活动波动存在负向影响。这说明经济发展水平与股票价格是我国并购浪潮的重要驱动因素。
基于宏觀經濟動因，研究經濟髮展水平、利率與股票價格指數對我國總體性併購活動的影響，實證檢驗結果錶明：除利率之外，經濟髮展水平及股票價格均與總體性併購活動存在長期的均衡關繫，併且為總體性併購活動的Granger原因；在短期內，經濟髮展水平波動與股票價格波動對併購活動波動均存在正嚮影響，而利率波動對併購活動波動存在負嚮影響。這說明經濟髮展水平與股票價格是我國併購浪潮的重要驅動因素。
기우굉관경제동인，연구경제발전수평、리솔여고표개격지수대아국총체성병구활동적영향，실증검험결과표명：제리솔지외，경제발전수평급고표개격균여총체성병구활동존재장기적균형관계，병차위총체성병구활동적Granger원인；재단기내，경제발전수평파동여고표개격파동대병구활동파동균존재정향영향，이리솔파동대병구활동파동존재부향영향。저설명경제발전수평여고표개격시아국병구랑조적중요구동인소。
This article investigates the impact of the economic development level, interest rate and stock price index on aggregate M&A activity based on the the macro economic motivation.Empirical results show that there are the long-run equilibrium relationship and Granger causality among the economic development level, interest rate and M&A activity excluding interest rate; In the short run, the volatility of economic development level and stock price has positive relation with the volatility of M&A activity,but the volatility of interest rate has negative relation with the volatility of M&A activity. This shows that the development level of economy and stock prices are important factors driving the wave of mergers and acquisitions in China.
