CAJ | 학술논문

本文关注于个体初职离职风险率的时代差异问题。在中国市场转型的背景下，不同的历史时期内，初职离职风险的时代差异反映了中国由再分配经济向市场经济转型过程中社会分层结构与机制的变迁。本文利用2009年“职业经历与社会网络”调查的数据，并运用 Log-Logistic 事件史分析模型，分析了在不同历史时期内，初职离职风险的时代差异。研究发现：在不同的历史时期，个体离开初职的风险率存在差异。随着时代的发展，无论是在体制内还是在体制外，个体离开初职的风险率也在增加。体制内工作的个体离开初职的风险率要低于体制外工作的个体，并且在体制内的工作中，初职职业地位的高低对离开初职的风险率没有影响；相反，在体制外的工作中，初职职业地位越高，离开初职的风险率越低。
본문관주우개체초직리직풍험솔적시대차이문제。재중국시장전형적배경하，불동적역사시기내，초직리직풍험적시대차이반영료중국유재분배경제향시장경제전형과정중사회분층결구여궤제적변천。본문이용2009년“직업경력여사회망락”조사적수거，병운용 Log-Logistic 사건사분석모형，분석료재불동역사시기내，초직리직풍험적시대차이。연구발현：재불동적역사시기，개체리개초직적풍험솔존재차이。수착시대적발전，무론시재체제내환시재체제외，개체리개초직적풍험솔야재증가。체제내공작적개체리개초직적풍험솔요저우체제외공작적개체，병차재체제내적공작중，초직직업지위적고저대리개초직적풍험솔몰유영향；상반，재체제외적공작중，초직직업지위월고，리개초직적풍험솔월저。
The differences in the risk rate of resident's quitting their first job in different eras may reflect the changes of the structure and mechanism of social stratification in the transition process from planning economy to market economy. Through the analysis of survey 2009 of job experience and social networks , the paper explores the hazard rates of resident's quitting their first job in different historical eras by Log-Logistic Even History model. The results show that there are great differences in the hazard rate of quitting first job in different eras , the general trend is that both the hazard rate of quitting first job has been increasing for all individuals both in the government-related sectors and marketized sectors. Of course the hazard rate in government-related sectors is much lower than that of marketized sectors. The social status of first job has no effect on the hazard rate of those working in government-related sectors while it affect greatly the hazard rate of those working in marketized sectors , in other word , the higher social status of the first job , the lower hazard rate of quitting the first job in the marketized sectors.