南方人口
南方人口
남방인구
SOUTH CHINA POPULATION
2014年
5期
1-11
,共11页
生育状况%生育意愿%“单独” 家庭%倾向值分析
生育狀況%生育意願%“單獨” 傢庭%傾嚮值分析
생육상황%생육의원%“단독” 가정%경향치분석
Fertility status%Fertility desire%Couples with one side without siblings%Propensity score matching
本文使用北京市西城区2013年生育意愿调查数据，基于不同的生育意愿测度指标，采用描述分析和回归分析方法检验城市“单独”家庭中生育一孩对二孩生育意愿的作用，并借助倾向值分析方法控制生育状况的自选择问题，从而使得研究结论更具稳健性和可靠性。结果表明，城市“单独”家庭的二孩生育意愿并不低迷，生育一孩能够强化育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿，而且生育状况的作用在生育意愿的众多影响因素中较为突出。上述结果需要在生育意愿的评估和生育政策的制定中有所关注。
本文使用北京市西城區2013年生育意願調查數據，基于不同的生育意願測度指標，採用描述分析和迴歸分析方法檢驗城市“單獨”傢庭中生育一孩對二孩生育意願的作用，併藉助傾嚮值分析方法控製生育狀況的自選擇問題，從而使得研究結論更具穩健性和可靠性。結果錶明，城市“單獨”傢庭的二孩生育意願併不低迷，生育一孩能夠彊化育齡婦女的二孩生育意願，而且生育狀況的作用在生育意願的衆多影響因素中較為突齣。上述結果需要在生育意願的評估和生育政策的製定中有所關註。
본문사용북경시서성구2013년생육의원조사수거，기우불동적생육의원측도지표，채용묘술분석화회귀분석방법검험성시“단독”가정중생육일해대이해생육의원적작용，병차조경향치분석방법공제생육상황적자선택문제，종이사득연구결론경구은건성화가고성。결과표명，성시“단독”가정적이해생육의원병불저미，생육일해능구강화육령부녀적이해생육의원，이차생육상황적작용재생육의원적음다영향인소중교위돌출。상술결과수요재생육의원적평고화생육정책적제정중유소관주。
Based on the data of the fertility desire survey in Xicheng District of Beijing in 2013 , this paper examines the effect of the first child's birth on the urban “only-child” women's fertility desire of the second child in the families with one side of the couple without siblings by using description analysis , statistical test and logit model and the propensity score matching method is applied to control the influence of the self-selection problems too. The results show that the urban“only-child” women's fertility desire of the second child is not at a very low level. The birth of the first child can strengthen the fertility desire of the second child , and its effect is more prominent among the factors affecting the fertility desire of the second child. This finding may have some reference to the fertility desire estimate and fertility policy-making.
