CAJ | 학술논문

通过构建劳动力转移波动冲击宏观经济的动态随机一般均衡模型，探讨劳动力转移对中国宏观经济影响的内在机理及影响程度。实证结果表明：建立的动态随机一般均衡模型能够较好地解释实际经济特征，劳动力转移对宏观经济变量的影响较其他冲击具有长期性，对产出、消费、投资和资本存量具有长期正向效应，对就业、物价、工资收入和生产成本具有长期负向效应。技术进步、政府支出和劳动力供给对宏观经济的冲击与已有研究较为一致，但与劳动力转移相比，三种冲击对宏观经济的影响仅为中短期效应。在对各宏观经济变量变化的贡献中，劳动力转移仅对产出发挥了主要作用，对资本和物价的变化有重要影响，但要弱于技术进步的影响，而在对消费和就业的影响上，劳动力转移要显著弱于技术进步。
통과구건노동력전이파동충격굉관경제적동태수궤일반균형모형，탐토노동력전이대중국굉관경제영향적내재궤리급영향정도。실증결과표명：건립적동태수궤일반균형모형능구교호지해석실제경제특정，노동력전이대굉관경제변량적영향교기타충격구유장기성，대산출、소비、투자화자본존량구유장기정향효응，대취업、물개、공자수입화생산성본구유장기부향효응。기술진보、정부지출화노동력공급대굉관경제적충격여이유연구교위일치，단여노동력전이상비，삼충충격대굉관경제적영향부위중단기효응。재대각굉관경제변량변화적공헌중，노동력전이부대산출발휘료주요작용，대자본화물개적변화유중요영향，단요약우기술진보적영향，이재대소비화취업적영향상，노동력전이요현저약우기술진보。
The paper set up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including labor transfer which used data simulation method to study the inherent logic and dynamic impact of labor transfer influence on macroeconomy in China. Empirical findings show that: the DSGE model can explain the real economy well, the shock of labor transfer for macroeconomy is longer than other variables. Labor transfer has positive impact on output, consumption, investment and capital stock in the long term, and has negative impact on employment, price, wage and output cost in the long term. The impact of technical progress, government expenditures and labor supply is the same with existent research, but they are midterm and shortterm impact. Labor transfer only play a significant role in contribution for output, has important impact on capital stock and price. The impact of labor transfer for consumption and employment is weaker than technical progress.