CAJ | 학술논문

认识驱动城市增长的经济力量是发挥市场在城镇化与城镇体系优化中决定性作用的基础。本文在集聚效应框架下，构建包含技术外部性与货币外部性影响的单区域和多区域人口迁移模型，使用2000～2011年261个城市的面板数据，通过引入衡量不同来源外部性的集聚因素，检验并确认了集聚效应在中国城市增长中的作用。研究发现：以城市人口规模衡量的技术外部性与城市人口增长率之间存在“U”型曲线关系，但是大多数城市处于曲线的左侧，城市增长率因城市规模增长而下降；以城市人口密度衡量的技术外部性与城市增长率之间表现出的倒“U”型曲线关系在统计上不显著；新经济地理理论所强调的货币外部性是驱动中国城市增长的重要力量；传统人口迁移理论中决定收入预期的工资和失业率对城市增长也有显著影响。
인식구동성시증장적경제역량시발휘시장재성진화여성진체계우화중결정성작용적기출。본문재집취효응광가하，구건포함기술외부성여화폐외부성영향적단구역화다구역인구천이모형，사용2000～2011년261개성시적면판수거，통과인입형량불동래원외부성적집취인소，검험병학인료집취효응재중국성시증장중적작용。연구발현：이성시인구규모형량적기술외부성여성시인구증장솔지간존재“U”형곡선관계，단시대다수성시처우곡선적좌측，성시증장솔인성시규모증장이하강；이성시인구밀도형량적기술외부성여성시증장솔지간표현출적도“U”형곡선관계재통계상불현저；신경제지리이론소강조적화폐외부성시구동중국성시증장적중요역량；전통인구천이이론중결정수입예기적공자화실업솔대성시증장야유현저영향。
To learn the driving force of the cities’ growth is fundamental for market mechanism to play decisive role in urbanization and urban systems optimization. This paper first constructs singleregion and multiregion urban growth models incorporating technological and pecuniary externalities, then to check and verify the effects of agglomeration economies on China’ s cities growth by using a panel data of 261 cities between 2000 and 2011. Results show, technological externalities measured by city population have Ushape relation with the growth rate of urban population, but most cities lie on the left side of the curve, which means urban population growth rates go down while cities grow larger; technological externalities measured by city population density have a statistically insignificant inverse Ushape relation with urban population growth rates; pecuniary externalities measured by market potential have significant positive effects on the growth rate of urban population;wages and unemployment rate, which decide the expected income in traditional migration theories, have significant effects on city growth.