CAJ | 학술논문

借助于人口普查和统计数据，采用多区域人口预测模型对我国城乡人口老龄化变动趋势进行了预测，结果发现，未来我国城乡人口老龄化程度呈不断上升趋势，乡-城人口流迁规模对我国城乡人口老龄化作用明显。乡-城人口流迁越快，未来城镇老年人口规模增长越快，农村老年人口规模则减少越明显，城镇老年人口规模将在2022年以后开始超过农村；流迁规模越大，对城镇老年人口比重和抚养比缓解作用越强，而对于农村则相反；未来我国农村老年人口比重始终会高于城镇，且农村和城市老年人口的比重的差距呈现由扩大到缩小的趋势。未来我国城镇将面临更大的养老负担和经济压力，而农村则面临家庭照料和长期照护的严重挑战。
차조우인구보사화통계수거，채용다구역인구예측모형대아국성향인구노령화변동추세진행료예측，결과발현，미래아국성향인구노령화정도정불단상승추세，향-성인구류천규모대아국성향인구노령화작용명현。향-성인구류천월쾌，미래성진노년인구규모증장월쾌，농촌노년인구규모칙감소월명현，성진노년인구규모장재2022년이후개시초과농촌；류천규모월대，대성진노년인구비중화무양비완해작용월강，이대우농촌칙상반；미래아국농촌노년인구비중시종회고우성진，차농촌화성시노년인구적비중적차거정현유확대도축소적추세。미래아국성진장면림경대적양로부담화경제압력，이농촌칙면림가정조료화장기조호적엄중도전。
The research observes trends in urban and rural population aging using census and statistics and predict the future using multiregional population forecasting model. The results show that aging issue indicated an increasing trend in both areas. Specifically, migration between rural and urban areas makes great contributions to boost aging in the local region. In terms of aging, the more active ruralurban migration is, the faster the future population of the elder in urban grows. Correspondingly, the population of the elder in rural drops dramatically. And after 2022 the population of the elder in urban will more than it in rural. The greater scale of ruralurban migration is, the less proportion of the elderly population and the dependency ratio in the urban region is, and the situation appears opposite in the rural. In future, the proportion of the elderly population in the rural area will always be higher than that in urban area, and the gap showed a narrow trend rather than expanding. Then we will face greater pension burden and economic pressures in urban, and the challenges of home care and longterm care will be serious in rural. Based on this policy implications, the article put forward some policy suggestions.