CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于我国对影子银行的定义测算其规模，并在此基础上采用2002-2014年的月度数据和结构VAR模型（SVAR）实证研究了影子银行对宏观经济发展和金融体系的影响。结果表明，近些年我国影子银行发展规模均以较为平稳的速度增长；影子银行短期内对经济增长有负面影响，但总体来看其发展对我国宏观经济具有积极作用；影子银行发展对我国金融发展具有一定的促进作用，但其规模过度扩张将会增加商业银行流动性风险，弱化其信用中介功能，对金融稳定产生负向冲击效应。最后在总结研究结论的基础上提出政策建议。
본문기우아국대영자은행적정의측산기규모，병재차기출상채용2002-2014년적월도수거화결구VAR모형（SVAR）실증연구료영자은행대굉관경제발전화금융체계적영향。결과표명，근사년아국영자은행발전규모균이교위평은적속도증장；영자은행단기내대경제증장유부면영향，단총체래간기발전대아국굉관경제구유적겁작용；영자은행발전대아국금융발전구유일정적촉진작용，단기규모과도확장장회증가상업은행류동성풍험，약화기신용중개공능，대금융은정산생부향충격효응。최후재총결연구결론적기출상제출정책건의。
This paper calculates the scale of shadow banking according to its definition in China. Based on this,it adopts the monthly data from 2002 to 2014 and the SVAR to conduct an empirical study on the influence of shadow banking on the development of macro-economy and financial system. The results show that in recent years, the devel-opment scale of shadow banking in China has achieved a rather steady growth;shadow banking has a negative impact on the economic growth in the short term,but overall,its development has a positive impact on China’s macro-econo-my;the development of shadow banking has somewhat promoted China’s financial development, but its over-expan-sion will increase the liquidity risk of commercial banks,weaken its role as a credit medium and produce a negative im-pact on financial stability. Finally, based on the summary and conclusions, the paper puts forward its policy sugges-tions.