CAJ | 학술논문

运用SPSS17.0统计软件进行相关分析和主成分分析及R软件的时间序列方法定量评估兰州市城关区气象因素对麻疹发病人数的影响程度.结果表明,气象因素对麻疹日发病人数的影响由大至小依次为相对湿度、日照时间、平均气温、平均气压、降水量、平均风速；各气象因素对麻疹发病的影响均具有一定滞后效应,平均气压、平均风速和日照时间在滞后9d、平均气温和降水量滞后7d、相对湿度滞后5d对麻疹日发病人数的影响最大.平均气压、平均气温和日照时间每增加1个IQR(四分位距),麻疹日发病人数分别增加175.2%、79.6%和24.3%,而相对湿度、降水量和平均风速每增加1个IQR,麻疹日发病人数则分别减少17.9%、5.2%和15.7%.
운용SPSS17.0통계연건진행상관분석화주성분분석급R연건적시간서렬방법정량평고란주시성관구기상인소대마진발병인수적영향정도.결과표명,기상인소대마진일발병인수적영향유대지소의차위상대습도、일조시간、평균기온、평균기압、강수량、평균풍속；각기상인소대마진발병적영향균구유일정체후효응,평균기압、평균풍속화일조시간재체후9d、평균기온화강수량체후7d、상대습도체후5d대마진일발병인수적영향최대.평균기압、평균기온화일조시간매증가1개IQR(사분위거),마진일발병인수분별증가175.2%、79.6%화24.3%,이상대습도、강수량화평균풍속매증가1개IQR,마진일발병인수칙분별감소17.9%、5.2%화15.7%.
Influences of meteorological factors on measles in Chengguan District, Lanzhou were estimated by using three methods, including correlation analysis, principal component analyses from statistical software SPSS 17.0, and times series analysis from R software. The results indicated that relative humidity posed the largest influence on the occurrences of measles, followed by sunshine duration, average temperature, average air pressure, average precipitation, and average wind speed. In addition, the influences of various meteorological factors on the occurrence of measles displayed the lag effect. The average air pressure, average wind speed and average sunshine duration displayed the longest lagging time (9 days), followed by average temperature and precipitation (7 days), and relative humidity (5 days), respectively. For every IQR increased for average air pressure, average temperature, and sunshine time, the occurrence of measles increased by 175.2%, 79.6%, and 24.3%, however, for every IQR increased for relative humidity, precipatation and average wind speed resulted in the occurrence of measles decreased by 17.9%, 5.2%and 15.7%, respectively.